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Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

by ABN

Source

John P. A. Ioannidis

Abstract

Summary

There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.

Candidate Obama debates President Obama on Government Surveillance

by ABN

Obama says, “…when you actually look at the details…”

The problem is we the public have never seen “the details” and have never even been told about these top secret programs (except by whistle blowers). Is Obama going to “actually” give us a “look at the details”? You can be certain he will not.

Good short vid, well-worth viewing.

Five myths about privacy

by ABN

Source

I am on vacation and so have been slow to add new material to this blog. The linked article is interesting and worth reading, but I chose to post it mainly for the following sentences, which have a wonderful Buddhist-American ring to them:

Even if a person is doing nothing wrong, in a free society, that person shouldn’t have to justify every action that government officials might view as suspicious. A key component of freedom is not having to worry about how to explain oneself all the time.

So agree with that and believe it should also apply to friends and colleagues. That may sound opposite to FIML practice where we say that all contretemps should be fully analyzed/explained, but it really isn’t. FIML is about finding deep freedom to communicate honestly with your partner. It doesn’t require you to justify everything you do, but rather provides a chance to speak deeply without fear of being misunderstood and judged wrongly.

Fourth Amendment to the United States Constitution

by ABN

 

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

Repost: Idiolects and idiotics

by ABN

An idiolect is the “dialect” of one person. It is unique to that person. We all speak an idiolect unique to us. No one else speaks in exactly the same way as you do. In fact, the varieties of idolects among speakers of even the same dialect can be quite pronounced, to say nothing of speakers who have been acculturated to different dialects.

Virtually, the same thing is true for our use and understanding of semiotics. Each one of us has a unique tangle of semiotics even if we share the same culture. Even if two people were born and raised in the same very strict cult, they will have different takes on their “shared” semiotics; they will see thier semiotics in individual and unique ways.

The term “idiolect” is a blend of the prefix idio, which means “own, personal, distinct to the individual” and the suffix lect, which is taken from the word “dialect.”

Continue reading…

Notes on FIML vocabulary

by ABN

On this site we have generally been using the term semiotics to indicate the amalgam of a sign, its meaning, and the emotions associated with it.

The word semiotics literally means “the study of signs and how they are processed or understood.” Just as we can speak of the psychology of a person or activity, so we can speak of the semiotics of a person or activity or anything else that uses signs for thought, feeling, perception, or communication.

The purpose of FIML practice is the optimization of interpersonal communication. Communication cannot but use signs. Interpersonal communication cannot but include emotion. This is why we use the word semiotics as we do—to indicate the amalgam of a sign, its meaning, and the emotions associated with it.

On this site we use the word index to mean a small sign that may be associated with a vast library of meaning. When an index appears or arises during interpersonal communication it starts as nothing more than a small sign. If an index is not held in abeyance, it may “call up” a library of much more complicated meaning.

A jangle is an emotional response to an index. Jangles are often negative. FIML practice seeks to identify jangles and use them as indicators that an index has appeared and that that index must be held in abeyance; that is, it must be prevented from accessing the emotional library of meaning it is normally associated with.

Ideally, a FIML query should be initiated the moment a jangle and index are noticed by a FIML partner. Often this partner is the listener, though partners who are speaking may also observe indexes in the partner who is listening.

The FIML query is designed to stop the index from immediately referencing the library of feeling and meaning typically associated with it. Doing this allows the partner making the query to ask of the other if the index/jangle they have perceived is based on something that actually happened or is simply a mistake based on a library they are holding in their own mind which does not reference anything that the speaker actually meant.

In the Peircean (Charles Sanders Peirce) branch of semiotics there are three kinds of signs—symbolic, iconic, and indexical. When we use the word index on this site we do not mean a Peircean indexical sign.

FIML practice is designed to help partners deal with the great welter of semiotics that each of them uses to communicate, think, feel, and understand the world and each other.

The FIML term idiotics indicates the unique welter, or agglomeration, of semiotics held by each individual human being. Just as each of us speaks an idiolect, each of us thinks, feels, and communicates with a unique idiotics.

The FIML term sociotics indicates the basic social (or public) semiotics of a culture or subculture. Just as all human beings have a unique idiotics all cultures have sociotics. The sociotics of large groups tend to be fairly simple semiotics that effectively communicate with many people. Sociotics hold cultures together and make communication work well-enough in many situations. Strongly held group sociotics within interpersonal relations can be a disaster, though, because, by definition, they deny individuality, even as they may attempt to define it. FIML partners are encouraged to form their own sociotics unique to them, thus distancing themselves from unwholesome attachments to group sociotics that may not suit them.

FIML practice has great “reach”; that is, it can and will have beneficial effects on many areas of life—communication, psychology, our understanding of culture, other people, and so on.

Consciousness After Death: Strange Tales From the Frontiers of Resuscitation Medicine

by ABN

Source

The main substance of the linked piece is an interview with Sam Parnia, who practices resuscitation medicine. Below is a quote from the interview.

It takes time for cells to die after they’re deprived of oxygen. It doesn’t happen instantly. We have a longer period of time than people perceive. We know now that when you become a corpse, when the doctor declares you dead, there’s still a possibility, from a biological and medical perspective, of death being reversed. – Sam Parnia

In Buddhist traditions it is widely believed that consciousness stays with or near the body long after the point in time that standard Western medicine says this is not possible.