Tag: analysis

Any retaliation by Iran against the United States of America will be met with force far greater than what was witnessed tonight — Trump

~ ABN ~ Leave a comment

__________

The world’s top KOBK player sent a strong signal followed by this qualified threat of much worse to come if warranted. Some are saying it was a weak move and a betrayal of MAGA campaign promises. I don’t think so. This can more accurately be seen as a decisive act that will eventually neuter Iran, while not allowing Israel to become the region’s hegemon (because at the same time Israel has shown its weakness and taken damage as well). My money is still on Trump: 1) because he is all we got; and 2) because he probably is making good moves and probably will succeed in bringing something resembling peace to the area without starting WW3. I still believe and hope Trump is seeking a world with a strong alliance among northern countries, Russia, USA, and Europe being the top three players. In that world, the Middle East will be governed by a coalition of regional states which will focus on prosperity, not terrorism or aggrandizement. ABN

Trump and the Israel-Iran War

~ ABN ~ Leave a comment

I have been busy and unable to post more often. One big thing to say is it seems that Trump, so far, has been handling the Israel-Iran war well. So far, he has been keeping a wise distance and appears to be doing what he can to prevent WW3. He also seems to be showing that he is not Israel’s bitch and not a toady to Jewish Supremists. All we can know comes from signs and actions. What he has done and said and not done and not said lead me to conclude he has good control of his and USA’s role in this war. ABN

UPDATE: Conditions have changed. I was wrong with the above prediction. This is straight-up KOBK warfare now. ABN

The Discovery of Microbial Life on Mars

~ ABN ~ Leave a comment

Abstract

The Discovery of life on Mars, and by extension, the stars, could be proven by discovery of a single living microbe on the Red Planet. But, at the same time, a mass of independently derived data all indicating a finite probably of life, indicating Occam’s Razor as a factor, can also form the basis for the following Inductive Reasoning: 1. The Conditions on Early Earth, where life appeared, and Early Mars, have now been found to be basically identical; therefore, based on the Principle of Mediocrity, the probability of life is estimated to be PL =0.5 on Mars, an estimated 50% probability. 2. Complex organic matter has been found in recently formed aqueously altered terrains on Mars, and in both ancient and young meteorites from the Red Planet, in aqueously deposited minerals found within them, suggesting a further probability of biological origin versus abiotic of PL =0.5. 3. Reexamination of the Viking Life Experiment results, given new knowledges of both Mars surface chemistry and biologically generated super-oxides on Earth, strongly support the conclusions of Levin that life was found in 1976, 4. The seasonal variations of two biologically produced gases, O2 and CH4 recently discovered, are consistent with widespread microbial life on Mars, and along with the Life Experiment results, again can be estimated to indicate a PL =0.5 for each test. In the article we will explore these four findings holistically and draw the overall Inductive Conclusion that the simplest interpretation for this body of data is that Life began and persists on Mars as surely as it does on Earth. We assume here that, using a probabilistic model, the probability of Mars being sterile is PS =(1-PL)N+1 and yields an estimated probability of Life on Mars as 97%. Life on Mars is thus discovered. This conclusion, similar to a court case built on circumstantial evidence, can also be likened to a Second Copernican Revolution, wherein the Earth is now displaced from the center of the Biological Universe, just as it was formerly displaced from its geometric center.

The Discovery of Microbial Life on MarsDownload

Trump signals no enthusiasm for war with Iran or wider war in ME

~ ABN ~ Leave a comment

In this, Trump shows he is either not Israel’s lapdog or he is pretending he is not Israel’s lapdog. Normal analysis of his demeanor and words is he has sidelined Netanyahu and Jewish Supremist in both Israel and USA. This is a sign that USA controls Israel, not the other way around. And also, it could be theater. But I think Trump wants lasting peace in the Middle East and has a good chance of seeing it happen through a coalition of regional powers controlling the region, with USA looking on. ABN

Trump withholds full support for Israel vs Iran; will retaliate only if ‘we are attacked’

~ ABN ~ Leave a comment

US aircraft carrier USS Nimitz is heading towards the Middle East as the conflict between Israel and Iran spirals into all-out war.

Donald Trump earlier warned that Iran will experience ‘the full strength’ of the American military if it attacks the US amid the conflict with Israel, despite reports he had vetoed Israel’s plans to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader.

The US President warned Tehran that if ‘we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the US Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before’. 

link

This all comes down to what ‘we’ means. So far, and as long as Trump continues to keep out of the conflict, ‘we’ means we are going to keep out of the conflict. This is good. It means radical Israeli Supremists are not getting any help from USA in establishing their Greater Israel fantasy; thus keeping them from becoming sole hegemon of the Middle East. This is KOBK game theory playing out before our eyes. ABN

Two Israeli F-35 Stealth Fighters Shot Down Over Iran, Female Pilot Captured: How Credible Are the Reports?

~ ABN ~ Leave a comment

Aspokesman of the Iranian Armed Forces has confirmed the shooting down of two Israeli F-35 fifth generation fighter aircraft during clashes on June 13, with state media subsequently reporting the capture of one female pilot who landed on Iranian soil after ejecting.

Although the veracity of these claims remains in question, an assessment of the circumstances of the F-35’s operations, and the capabilities of Iranian air defences, provides context which is invaluable to evaluating the likelihood that such shootdowns were achieved.

The F-35 is the only modern fighter currently in the Israeli Air Force’s fleet, with none of the service’s F-15s or F-16s having been produced at or modernised to a ‘4+ generation’ standard, while all continue to rely on mechanically scanned array radars considered effectively obsolete for high intensity engagements.

Confirmation that Israeli attacks on Iranian targets used not only air-launched missiles, which can be fired from F-15s and F-16s far beyond Iranian airspace with little risk to the aircraft, but also gravity bombs which these older fighters would struggle to brave Iranian airspace to drop, makes it highly likely that Israeli F-35s flew deep into Iranian airspace to attack their targets. Such operations are unprecedented, with prior Israeli attacks on Iran having consistently been launched from far outside the country’s airspace. 

Although the F-35 retains advanced stealth capabilities, and Iranian air defences have shown signs of considerable limitations in the past, the sheer scale of Iran’s arsenal of air defence assets, the sophisticated capabilities of many of its systems, and the size of its fighter fleet, make it highly possible that F-35s were shot down.

link

Analysis of Israel-Iran fight — Evan

~ ABN ~ Leave a comment

– The attacks are coordinated, pre-approved. Approved by the force behind Pezeshkian, the TPS, Israel and the GCC.

– Iran will retaliate in proportion or to a lesser degree.

– Escalation will then cease.

– Hamas and Israel will spontaneously reach a ceasefire agreement.

– We should then see the final stages of the negotiations taking place. Iran sanction relief. Israel cabinet removal.

– Iran and Israel will be simultaneously be “defanged” and “de-nuclearized”.

– Followed by Iranian normalization with Israel. This will secure the entire region free of conflicts, genocide, war etc.

– The “Palestine Emerging Initiative” set out by the TPS elites at the beginning of the Gaza war will begin to take shape.

Odds are I’m right.

‘Humanism and critical theory as applied to therapy are incompatible frameworks’ — Naomi Best

~ ABN ~ Leave a comment

link to her account with more description of problem

This is a civilization-wide problem across the West (and the world). It rests on a psycholinguistic feature or flaw inherent in human beings.

This feature or flaw is used in mind-control and self-actuating mind-control.

Once this feature has been tapped as a flaw, it works on its own in a majority of people, thus producing pathological hive-mindedness.

To be brief, psycholinguistic arrays tend to cluster around core concepts. The nature of trained-in core concepts is they become reified and ‘root’ the mind firmly against distractions, deviations and suasion.

This is good when you are training to be an electrician. This is bad when you are training to be a psychotherapist.

All cultures and subcultures are formed around core concepts (and psycholinguistics) through training and imitation.

It takes a better than average mind to see above this or around it.

Learn and understand FIML and you will see this in great detail within yourself and understand why it is both a feature and a flaw in all human language use.

It is not solely a psychological thing, which is why I often use the term psycholinguistics. ABN

Analysis of the Israeli attack on Iran from USA POV

~ ABN ~ Leave a comment

According to most information flowing from the region, a second wave attack from Israel us underway (or just completed).  The first wave targeting was the Iranian military leadership and nuclear scientists, the second wave hitting the nuclear installations.

We could tell from the initial targeting, the IDF were not targeting hardened installations, they were targeting people who run them where they live in the middle of the night.  This appears to be confirmed by ground reporting of residences being the target with highly strategic Mossad agents on the ground doing major intelligence activity to identify the targets.  It appears Israel was very successful (but still really early).

That approach also establishes the baseline for internal Iranian political opposition to push for regime change.

The second wave of Israeli targeting then goes directly at the nuclear installations.  This approach also makes sense.  First round takes out the brain power, second round takes out their hardened facilities (much more difficult to eliminate).

As the operation proceeds, we now turn focus to the U.S. interests, and this is where we use hindsight to last Sunday’s Camp David meeting.

Secretary of State / National Security Advisor Marco Rubio emphasizes Israel is acting “unilaterally,” without USA support.  President Trump proactively and strategically emphasizes his preferred approach of “diplomacy.”

Some will doubt, but I would draw your attention to Trump’s relay of the call with Vladimir Putin last week. Obviously, President Trump understood Israel was on the cusp of taking some ‘unilateral’ action, albeit with a likelihood of a head’s-up to USA of approximate timing (Sunday Camp David as a proactive ‘get us prepped’ agenda).

The scenario begins to become self-evident when you consider that President Trump redirected 20,000 patriot defense missiles from Ukraine to Israel, much to the chagrin and anger of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as expressed June 9th.  Which also takes us into the conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Under this scenario, Camp David on Sunday would likely be a coordination meeting between President Trump, Secretary/NSA Marco Rubio and top military officials where the topic was getting our interests prepared and shifted as the administration knew this week something was going to happen with Iran.  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday the U.S. moves personnel and non-essentials into a more secure and stable environment.  Friday, Boom.

Back to Putin.

[This is a first-rate analysis, well-worth reading. Posted in full with Sundance’s permission. ABN]

Continue reading “Analysis of the Israeli attack on Iran from USA POV” →

The basic argument for what is probably the only corrective to Western and USA total demise

~ ABN ~ Leave a comment

The US system is based on ‘enlightened self-interest’, not bald ‘self-interest’. A system like ours demands a fundamentally moral population that largely agrees with basic Rawlsian morality — don’t do to others what you don’t want them to do to you. Our system works best within that framework, as that is what allows individual freedom and creativity to flourish. Almost all of that has been lost, inundated with too many migrants who have have no idea and corroded by too many groups who are entirely selfish. ABN