Five possible military scenarios that could be provoked by Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan

Scenario 1: The minimalist approach. The PLA occupies Jinmen or Matsu islands, as well as Taiwan’s islands in the South China Sea, and maybe even the Penghu Islands. They also declare part or all of the Taiwan Strait a “no go” zone to foreign military shipping. This would probably be fairly easy for the PLA, and Taiwan would probably not want to overcommit to naval action against the huge PLA Navy (PLAN) if it didn’t directly approach the main island.

Scenario 2: Hybrid warfare. Some sort of partial naval and aerial blockade of Taiwan intended to interfere with the economy, combined with stepped-up harassment, such as direct flyovers of Taiwan’s territory by PLA Air Force (PLAAF) jets, or incursions into Taiwan’s maritime space by China’s naval militia, protected by PLAN warships. This might also be accompanied by cyberattacks designed to shut down the internet and other infrastructure for days at a time. Taiwan would have no choice to assert a stiff defensive posture, resulting in real engagements between Taiwanese and Chinese forces, posing a serious risk of escalation.

Scenario 3: A serious attack but no invasion. This would involve air and sea warfare only, no boots on the ground. A full aerial and naval blockade, a protracted set of naval and aerial battles designed to degrade Taiwan’s military, combined with ballistic missile attacks on military targets. Aggressive cyberattacks turning off the internet and shutting down critical infrastructure for days or weeks. Once air and naval superiority were established, China could pick off targets at will, ratcheting up the threat until the government breaks.

Scenario 4: The Full Monty – a proper invasion. Total air and sea blockade, massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets, massive cyberattacks to paralyze virtually all military, governmental, and civilian communication and shut down critical infrastructure. Aggressive naval and aerial engagements to degrade Taiwan’s forces and achieve battlespace superiority, followed by sustained aerial assaults by fighters and bombers on military targets. A decapitation strike at Taipei by special forces units to try to seize key leadership personnel. Well-coordinated insider treason and sabotage actions by gangsters, planted CCP agents, and other groups sympathetic to China – the so-called “5th column”. An amphibious assault with close air support from fighters, helicopters, and battle drones at one or more locations in Taiwan, and very possibly a move to seize a major port, such as Keelung, Taipei Port, Taichung, or Kaohsiung. Then hundreds of thousands of troops would start rolling in until the island was occupied. That would be the plan, anyway. PLA success in such an endeavor is very unclear. But they could do a hell of a lot of damage trying. And yes, they might actually succeed, at least partially, such as in seizing and holding the region around Taipei.

Scenario 5: Worst Case (short of nuclear) scenario. Full air and sea blockade, massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets, massive cyberattack, aggressive naval and aerial attacks to degrade Taiwan’s forces and achieve battlefield superiority, followed by aerial assaults by fighters and bomber on military targets and area bombing of civilian targets. There are massive casualties, and Taiwan is crushed by brute force, surrenders, and then the occupiers enter the country and take it over.

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Be sure to read the linked article for a discussion of how these military responses may or may not fit developing conditions. Scenario 0 is there may be no military response. Taiwan could tell Pelosi not to come or prevent her from coming, but so far this has not happened, so a major onus is very much on Taiwan right now. That said, the US role is huge. The only “advantage” the US can gain from this is a similar proxy war/bleeding of China as Ukraine was supposed to effect against Russia. The other big factor is the US may possess super-weapons that ensure victory if WW3 breaks out. This would entail a super antimissile system as well as super-nukes, probably space-based. Without question Biden is not in charge. Who are his handlers and what are their goals? Are their goals in any way good for America? The world? Why do Biden’s overlords use such drab, dismal people as their public face? Consider how weak and stupid most of them seem to be, including Pelosi, Harris, Biden, Blinken, Sullivan, Buttigieg, and many more. None of them appears to have the intelligence or ability to lead USA in placid times, let alone these times. ABN

“I don’t believe he’s running the country. I believe certain entities have infiltrated our country and have taken over. I believe he’s being blackmailed by these entities”

🇨🇦 “He is the worst of the worst that Canada has to offer…He wants to be a dictator.” —@TheoFleury14 on @JustinTrudeau | @TuckerToday

This same pattern is repeated in USA, Europe, Australia, and NZ. I am glad to see a clip like this being posted by Carlson himself. It does take decent intelligence and a practical imagination to see the possibility that the entire West has been infiltrated and taken over. Once you see the possibility and consider it seriously, many obscure connections become clear. Obviously, Biden is being directed by others. Consider how incompetent leaders in the other Western nations are. Not hard to see they also are being directed by others. The rewards of a decades-long war of infiltration and control are enormous. Consider the rewards compared to the small expense of buying, bribing, and blackmailing your way to total control. ABN

UPDATE: Correction: “…buying, bribing, blackmailing, and murdering your way to total control.” ABN

Heads of MI5 and FBI warn of threat posed by China in first ever joint speech: Security chiefs say they are facing ‘game changing challenge’ from communist party which is ‘covertly applying pressure across the globe’

MI5 director Ken McCallum and FBI chief Christopher Wray in historic address

Heads of security agencies used joint speech to warn of China’s long-term risk

Ruling CCP pose a ‘game changing challenge’ to the established world order 


Notable because it’s a joint statement. Also notable is it’s from two agencies I do not trust about a third I do not trust either. I do not believe any of us below the very top know what is really going on. Recall that covid is almost certainly either a US bioweapon, a Chinese bioweapon or one concocted by both and release deliberately or not. That is one wobbling foundation upon which to divine the planetary drama playing out today. Covid allowed China to hide its defeat in its trade war with Trump. It also provided cover for our domestic cabal to steal the presidential election. Every factor you can think of cuts two, three, four ways minimum. That said, Chinese spying is ferocious and very widespread. What’s weird about that is they are spying on Western institutions that have already been infiltrated and taken over by someone else. Who wants world domination most? Even if you don’t want it, who wants to be dominated? No question, we have before us one of the greatest illustrations of the First Noble Truth ever manifested in the human realm. ABN