Endgame Ukraine; Putin’s Battleplan

“Ukraine’s unquestioned strategic center of gravity is its western corridors to the Polish border where the vast majority of its war support enters the country. Their operational center of gravity is their resupply lines emanating eastwards from Kyiv to Ukraine’s various frontline positions. Without those two corridors, it would be nearly impossible for Kyiv to sustain wartime operations for more than a few weeks. Putin, therefore, may calculate the best use of those 218,000 additional troops will be to launch a three-pronged axis to cut both of those supply routes.” Lt. Colonel Daniel L. Davis, Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and Contributing Editor at 1945

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The chaos among Twitter’s employees isn’t nearly as chaotic as it seems

Elon Musk knows how to run a business.

We’ve looked closely at what’s going on with everyone’s favorite social media site to see what his strategy really is.

And the chaos among Twitter’s employees isn’t nearly as chaotic as it seems.

Here's why 🧵👇

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As soon as Musk took over Twitter, he purged the C-suite. Then he turned his eyes to the rank and file.

“Print out 50 pages of code you’ve done in the last 30 days,” an internal message read.

Engineers were told their work would be reviewed by senior Tesla staff.

Continue reading “The chaos among Twitter’s employees isn’t nearly as chaotic as it seems”

Arizona AG Launches Investigation Into Maricopa County ‘Election Irregularities’

The Arizona attorney general’s office has launched an investigation into irregularities in Maricopa County’s handling of the midterm elections.

AG Mark Brnovich’s election integrity unit has demanded a full report of well-publicized irregularities, and what he claims is evidence of “statutory violations.”

The letter, sent late Saturday by Assistant AG Jennifer Wright to the county’s top civil division attorney, Thomas Liddy, is a major escalation over widespread problems with voting tabulators and printers, which delayed the declaration of a winner in razor-thin races in the attorney general’s race and the gubernatorial race.

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Consider: are we not programmed to expect nothing? The slew of battles we lose and keep losing is a mind-control technique, conditioning us to low expectations. This is an integral part of the game. No matter what we say or do, it is part of the game because we are exclusively players and cannot make any rules. ABN

The Awful Truth: Paul Pelosi Was Drunk Again, And In a Dispute With a Male Prostitute Early Friday Morning

As SF’s gay bars closed at 2 am, two gay men met in a bar and went home together. Happens every night in the City by the Bay. Except one of these two men, was married to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

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This article was Tweeted by Elon Musk in response to some HRC bs, so the link is extremely slow loading. Just open in new tab and let it load. Below is an image of the exchange Musk had with HRC. ABN

Continue reading “The Awful Truth: Paul Pelosi Was Drunk Again, And In a Dispute With a Male Prostitute Early Friday Morning”

The danger of having a KOBK king and of being one

Takeaway from new top leadership of China's Communist Party? Loyalty to Xi matters above all else.

And only one man's opinion matters in China: Xi's

Originally tweeted by Selina Wang (@selinawangtv) on October 23, 2022.

Xi has become the ultimate KOBK King of China. In ruthless intraparty fighting within the CCP he has “killed” (disempowered or literally killed) all possible rivals, for now. The grim rules of KOBK are zero-sum and also even when one party wins, the game is never over. I largely disagree with comparing Putin to XI as there is little resemblance. The nameless cabal that now rules the West can be more aptly compared to Xi. Our cabal has not done massive quarantine camps and lockdowns as Xi has, but it has done lockdowns and it is quarantining people and information while also treating its enemies to ruthless KOBK searches and arrests. Far too many Westerners may as well be in a prison camp due to their fear of saying or doing the wrong thing, of appearing different or not agreeing with the consensus. ABN

Google and FIML

Google has helped all of us upgrade our info about the world around us, whatever we are interested in, etc.

In the past, people had brains as complex as ours and a love of good information as great as ours, but they had to make do with less.

Somewhat resembling Google, FIML practice upgrades interpersonal information shared by (usually) two people.

Rather than guess and fill our minds with superstitions about the people we care about most, FIML allows us to “look up” the info we need when we need it.

This has a dramatic and beneficial effect on both the self and other(s). The foundations of human psychology are exposed in FIML practice.

Once you see how FIML works and what it does, you will be doing it as often as you jump on the computer to look up something you want to know.

FIML is advanced interpersonal technology that makes first-rate psychological information as readily available as a computer search. It does take some practice, but is emotionally even more valuable than Google.

first posted SEPTEMBER 9, 2016

Just six years ago when this was first posted, I was still naive about Google, which is a beast at both gathering and curating information. The analogy posed above belongs to a different time. Properly done, FIML practice does not curate information or selfishly gather information and hide it as Google now does. ABN

Jeff Nyquist on Russian strategy, weaponry, and timeline in Ukraine war

link to video, 32 min

The greatest foreign policy mistake in the world has been the West not forming an alliance with Russia or at least good relations. The fall of the Soviet Union was the best time to do that but Western forces raped Russia instead. Since that time 30 years have past, all wasted with bullshit against Russia even down to the micro-politics of Washington, DC and the lies of Russiagate. I place almost all blame on USA and the EU. Forming an alliance with Russia–a Top of the World alliance including Japan, Korea, and others–would have prevented the very dangerous situation we are in today and also guaranteed prosperity for all parties. ABN

Mattias Desmet: The Attempt to Burn Me at the Stake

In recent weeks, an offensive has been launched against me in the Flemish media. I’ve been accused of being a liar, a far-right extremista conspiracy theorist, controlled opposition, and of indoctrinating my students. I’ve quietly listened to every voice that felt called to make itself heard. And I have the impression that everyone who had something to say has now done so.

Now I’m going to say a word for myself.

I think I have some right to respond to a story about myself. Members of the media apparently disagree. As eagerly as they speak of me, they have obstinately refused to speak to me. But isn’t it a fundamental precept of humanity—that everyone has the right to tell their side of the story?

Granted, the media has had a certain inhibition about me for some time. For example, there was an uncomfortable silence in the press when my book The Psychology of Totalitarianism was translated into ten languages ​​earlier this year and sold tens of thousands of copies.

Why such silence? Perhaps for this reason: people might start to take seriously the idea that the corona crisis was primarily a psycho-social phenomenon that marked the transition to a technocratic system, a system in which the government would attempt to claim decision-making rights over its citizens and, step by step, take control of all private space.

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Consider this in light of global game theory. Top players–USA, China, Russia, maybe India–do not know what their adversaries have or are capable of doing. Which of them will be first to make a quantum computer that can break all current digital passwords. Or which of them has some other weapon or means of global control. Since none of them–and there could be other top players–knows what their adversaries have or are capable of, all of them are forced to engage in some form of unrestricted warfare. You could say there is nothing new in that, all of history has had that condition and that would be true enough, but the speed of technological change today makes it different. Today, it is a much more dangerous game with stakes higher than they have ever been before. The heart of this KOBK geopolitical game is zero-sum, unrestricted war in the face of profound and dire uncertainty. This the deep reason almost anyone with a significant voice is silenced or behaves with apparent (or real) confusion and ignorance. Desmet, and those of us who have listened to him, knows something very dangerous is looming. Consider what he says in light of the conditions facing the top global players. It seems clear to me that there is no escape for them from this game. Top players cannot form trusted alliances with each other because they cannot have anything even approaching perfect knowledge of their partners. Therefore, all of them are forced into a melee of unrestricted war. Including unrestricted warfare against their own citizens. That is what is happening now and not something else. ABN

NATO in the horns of a dilemma after former Ukrainian regions vote to join Russia: Scott Ritter

By infusing tens of billions of dollars’ worth of military aid into Ukraine, NATO produced a “game-changing” dynamic designed to throw Russia off balance. By undertaking the referendums in Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk, and Lugansk, Russia changed the game altogether.

The ancient Greeks spoke of lemma as representing a logical premise, a matter taken for granted. This contrasted with a dilemma, or “dual premise”, where one would be presented with an either/or proposition. The Romans furthered this notion, referring to a “double premise” as argumentum cornutum, of the “horned argument,” because by answering one argument, an individual would be impaled by the logic of the second. Thus are the ancient roots of the modern idiom, “on the horns of a dilemma.”

This is the ultimate objective of maneuver warfare, for example: to position your forces in such a manner as to present the enemy with no good option – should they react to one pressing threat, they would find themselves overwhelmed by the other.

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I analyzed every classical game of Magnus Carlsen since January 2020 with the famous chessbase tool.Two 100 % games, two other games above 90 %.

I analyzed every classical game of Magnus Carlsen since January 2020 with the famous chessbase tool.
Two 100 % games, two other games above 90 %.

It is an immense difference between Niemann and MC. Niemann has ten games with 100 % and another 23 games above 90 % in the same time.

One has to keep in mind that Carlsen won nearly every tournament he played in this period of time. He is the best player by quite some margin.
This numbers say: Either Niemann is capable of playing much better games than Carlsen on a regular basis or he is cheating.

Planning to do the same analysis of other prodigys to compare them with Niemann.
Addendum: The numbers always depend on the depth of the engine. But the differences are usualy not that important (one or two percent, nothing decisive).

@PHChess @GMJanGustafsson @FressinetL @TarjeiJS @olimpiuurcan @GMHikaru @CSQpod @IglesiasYosha @ChessProblem @MagnusCarlsen @souleidis @Bodenseeperlen

Originally tweeted by Johannes (@ty_johannes) on September 27, 2022.

link to original w interesting replies

Game theory and trust

The game linked below explains some basics of game theory and also some basics of why FIML practice works so well.

The game can be found at this link: The Evolution of Trust.

I highly recommend playing this game. It takes about thirty minutes to finish.

For the first part of it, I was only mildly interested though the game is reasonably engaging.

When it got a point where communication mistakes are factored in, I sat up and took notice.

The game is a very simple computer model of some very simple basic choices human beings make all the time. Without giving away too much, even this simple model shows something I bet most of us can already see.

And that is: zero-sum games do not give rise to trust. Win-win games do.

What was most interesting to me is the game also shows that communication mistakes foster trust if there are not too many of them.

Accepting mistakes in communication requires trust. Mistakes happen. When two people accept that in each other and in themselves, trust grows.

This is a very important point and a foundation of FIML practice.

In fact, I would say that mistakes foster trust even more in FIML than other communication games. This happens because in FIML mistakes are isolated in such a way that they can be fully recognized and understood for what they are.

This provides a method for solving immediate problems while also building a foundation for the inevitable occurrence of future ones. Moreover, the kinds of mistakes people make become less stupid.

In many respects, the game of FIML is largely one of recognizing communication mistakes or potential mistakes as soon as they arise, within seconds of their onset.

By doing that FIML shows us how our deep psychology is actually functioning in real-life. Multiple insights into this aspect of psychology are transformational.

first posted FEBRUARY 11, 2020