“These documents have been leaked (deliberately?) by the Ukraine Armed Forces, and seem to be genuine. A huge number of Ukraine eyeballs have been on them via Telegram channels — but no one has seriously disputed their authenticity”

These documents have been leaked (deliberately?) by the Ukraine Armed Forces, and seem to be genuine. A huge number of Ukraine eyeballs have been on them via Telegram channels — but no one has seriously disputed their authenticity.

What they reveal is horrifying.

According to these documents, the Ukraine Armed Forces have lost 191,000 men between killed in action and wounded in action. Assuming a 3 to 1 ratio, that would mean 50,000 men have died, and 140,000 are wounded seriously enough to be incapacitated either to fight or to work.

Continue reading ““These documents have been leaked (deliberately?) by the Ukraine Armed Forces, and seem to be genuine. A huge number of Ukraine eyeballs have been on them via Telegram channels — but no one has seriously disputed their authenticity””

The Growing Threat From North Korea

  • China’s urging “flexibility” on North Korea appears to coincide with the Chinese Communist Party’s ambitions in the region.
  • “According to unclassified intelligence reports to Congress, there are five key Chinese banks and a specially created holding company that funds the North Korean missile and nuclear technology programs.” — Peter Huessy, Real Clear Defense, August 10, 2017.
  • China’s main strategic concern when it comes to the Korean peninsula is apparently to end the US presence there and keep it out of US hands so that China can finally establish itself as the hegemon in the region.
  • North Korean escalation in the form of increased missile tests and resumption of ICBM and nuclear tests to pressure the US to make concessions — in the shape of troop withdrawals from South Korea — would play directly into the hands of China, enabling it to replace the US and establish itself as the primary power in the region.
  • “They are looking to take actions, which we believe are fundamentally destabilizing, as a way to increase pressure.” — US official in Washington to journalists, France24.com, January 31, 2022.
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China’s CCP Concealed SARS-CoV-2 Presence in China as Far Back as March 2018

A world inquiring about the origins of SARS-CoV-2 has been met with repeated antipathy and lack of cooperation on the part of the Chinese Communist Party. Consequently, any speculation that the CCP concealed the presence of SARS-CoV-2 prior to December 2019 must be researched through an examination of corroborating yet circumstantial evidence. Inference which may be ascertained only through prosecution along a series of must-answer critical questions.
The Chinese Communist Party owes the entire world restitution for its negligent handling and release of a virus which they fully understood could be deployed as a weapon of war. A virus which has destroyed human rights, worldwide economies, and furthermore resulted in over 5 million deaths globally to date.
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Note the date of this piece—11/15/21. Ethical Skeptic has consistently provided deeper and better analysis of covid than anyone I know of. The linked essay is still valid. I highly recommend his Twitter account for frequently updated, incisive insights into the history, evolution, and real-world effects of covid. ABN

China drills simulate full Attack on Taiwan

Taiwan says China’s military has upped the threat level against it as People’s Liberation Army (PLA) planes pressed ahead with their largest ever drills surrounding the island, following Thursday’s ultra-provocative launch of eleven ballistic missiles in area waters, some of which were reported to have flown over the island and population of some 23 million.

On Saturday Taiwan’s defense ministry said it observed Chinese planes and ships conducting attack simulation exercises while operating in the Taiwan Strait. “Multiple batches of Chinese communist planes and ships conducting activities around the Taiwan strait, some of which crossed the median line,” it said in a statement. 

Days ago Chinese state media said the median line – which forms an unofficial border, the other side of which includes Taiwan-claimed waters – has ceased to exist. Government mouthpiece Global Times had also cast the drills as rehearsal for a “reunification operation”

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US to take part in military exercise near India’s disputed border with China

The United States is to take part in a joint military exercise with India less than 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the South Asian country’s disputed border with China.

The military drills will be held in mid-October at an altitude of 10,000 feet in Auli in the Indian state of Uttarakhand and will focus on high-altitude warfare training, according to a senior Indian Army officer with knowledge of the matter.

Auli is about 95 kilometers from the Line of Actual Control (LAC), an inhospitable piece of land where the disputed border between India and China is roughly demarcated.

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US to conduct “standard air and maritime transits” through the Taiwan Strait “in the next few weeks”

WHITE HOUSE/TAIPEI — The White House announced a series of steps aimed to defend a “free and open Indo-Pacific” following Chinese firing of at least 11 ballistic missiles into waters encircling Taiwan on Thursday, a day after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wrapped up a visit to the island that enraged Beijing.

“China has chosen to overreact and use the speaker’s visit as a pretext to increase provocative military activity in and around the Taiwan Strait,” said John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council on Thursday.

Kirby told reporters U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has directed the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and the ships in her strike group to remain in the vicinity to “monitor the situation.” He said Washington will also conduct “standard air and maritime transits” through the Taiwan Strait in the next few weeks.

He promised “further steps” to demonstrate commitment to U.S. allies including Japan, which announced that five of the Chinese missiles landed within their exclusive economic zone.

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Tit-for-tat becomes difficult to appraise. Pelosi did what she did. Taiwan allowed her to do it. In response, China did what it did. Now, we are going to do “standard air and maritime transits in the next few weeks.” Could mean much. Could mean little. Much will happen between then and now. This is an uncertain or indeterminable state with many incalculable and unknowable factors. Looming over it is the potential for an invasion of Taiwan or, worse, WW3.

A major factor we do know is Xi Jinping has been locking down Chinese cities like crazy for many months. That is extremely weird and can be best explained by his knowing: 1) a Chinese economic crash is coming (seems it is) and/or 2) war is coming, either provoked by him or USA, either involving only Taiwan or USA and the entire world as well.

Another major factor we do know is USA provoked Russia through Ukraine in a very similar manner to how we are provoking China through Taiwan. Scroll down this page or peruse the war tag for more on this perspective. ABN

China unleashes its power: Worldwide outrage as ballistic missiles fly over Taiwan prompting Japan to demand ‘immediate’ halt to military drills or risk destroying peace in the region

China ratcheted up its military intimidation of Taiwan yesterday by firing ballistic missiles which flew over the island and landed in Japanese waters.

As promised by the ruling Communist Party, four days of war games encircling Taiwan began just before 2pm (local time) with wave after wave of rocket launches, while Chinese jets took to the skies and ten warships patrolled the sea.

Five high-powered missiles fired from the mainland flew over Taiwan, Japanese officials said, and plunged into the sea south of Hateruma Island, part of Okinawa. The series of islands are part of Japan’s ‘exclusive economic zone’, which extends 200 nautical miles from its coast.

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Jeff Nyquist on China and Taiwan today

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Nyquist is the Geert Vanden Bossche of communist studies. His predictions come true, his thesis makes sense, he knows the material, and what he says is worldview changing. This video is essential if you want to understand Taiwan, China, Russia, geopolitics in general. (On a side note, Nyquist’s pronunciation of Chinese is weirdly atrocious. Most people do better after even very casual contact with Chinese studies. That said, as a psycholinguist, I well understand that weirdly atrocious language glitches are typically just that and nothing more. Some people cannot spell to save their lives, yours truly included.) ABN

Five possible military scenarios that could be provoked by Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan

Scenario 1: The minimalist approach. The PLA occupies Jinmen or Matsu islands, as well as Taiwan’s islands in the South China Sea, and maybe even the Penghu Islands. They also declare part or all of the Taiwan Strait a “no go” zone to foreign military shipping. This would probably be fairly easy for the PLA, and Taiwan would probably not want to overcommit to naval action against the huge PLA Navy (PLAN) if it didn’t directly approach the main island.

Scenario 2: Hybrid warfare. Some sort of partial naval and aerial blockade of Taiwan intended to interfere with the economy, combined with stepped-up harassment, such as direct flyovers of Taiwan’s territory by PLA Air Force (PLAAF) jets, or incursions into Taiwan’s maritime space by China’s naval militia, protected by PLAN warships. This might also be accompanied by cyberattacks designed to shut down the internet and other infrastructure for days at a time. Taiwan would have no choice to assert a stiff defensive posture, resulting in real engagements between Taiwanese and Chinese forces, posing a serious risk of escalation.

Scenario 3: A serious attack but no invasion. This would involve air and sea warfare only, no boots on the ground. A full aerial and naval blockade, a protracted set of naval and aerial battles designed to degrade Taiwan’s military, combined with ballistic missile attacks on military targets. Aggressive cyberattacks turning off the internet and shutting down critical infrastructure for days or weeks. Once air and naval superiority were established, China could pick off targets at will, ratcheting up the threat until the government breaks.

Scenario 4: The Full Monty – a proper invasion. Total air and sea blockade, massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets, massive cyberattacks to paralyze virtually all military, governmental, and civilian communication and shut down critical infrastructure. Aggressive naval and aerial engagements to degrade Taiwan’s forces and achieve battlespace superiority, followed by sustained aerial assaults by fighters and bombers on military targets. A decapitation strike at Taipei by special forces units to try to seize key leadership personnel. Well-coordinated insider treason and sabotage actions by gangsters, planted CCP agents, and other groups sympathetic to China – the so-called “5th column”. An amphibious assault with close air support from fighters, helicopters, and battle drones at one or more locations in Taiwan, and very possibly a move to seize a major port, such as Keelung, Taipei Port, Taichung, or Kaohsiung. Then hundreds of thousands of troops would start rolling in until the island was occupied. That would be the plan, anyway. PLA success in such an endeavor is very unclear. But they could do a hell of a lot of damage trying. And yes, they might actually succeed, at least partially, such as in seizing and holding the region around Taipei.

Scenario 5: Worst Case (short of nuclear) scenario. Full air and sea blockade, massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets, massive cyberattack, aggressive naval and aerial attacks to degrade Taiwan’s forces and achieve battlefield superiority, followed by aerial assaults by fighters and bomber on military targets and area bombing of civilian targets. There are massive casualties, and Taiwan is crushed by brute force, surrenders, and then the occupiers enter the country and take it over.

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Be sure to read the linked article for a discussion of how these military responses may or may not fit developing conditions. Scenario 0 is there may be no military response. Taiwan could tell Pelosi not to come or prevent her from coming, but so far this has not happened, so a major onus is very much on Taiwan right now. That said, the US role is huge. The only “advantage” the US can gain from this is a similar proxy war/bleeding of China as Ukraine was supposed to effect against Russia. The other big factor is the US may possess super-weapons that ensure victory if WW3 breaks out. This would entail a super antimissile system as well as super-nukes, probably space-based. Without question Biden is not in charge. Who are his handlers and what are their goals? Are their goals in any way good for America? The world? Why do Biden’s overlords use such drab, dismal people as their public face? Consider how weak and stupid most of them seem to be, including Pelosi, Harris, Biden, Blinken, Sullivan, Buttigieg, and many more. None of them appears to have the intelligence or ability to lead USA in placid times, let alone these times. ABN

China’s Peoples Liberation Army posted a new video on WeChat ahead of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan

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I personally greatly favor Taiwan independence, but do not believe it is our fight. Pelosi’s trip, if she goes, will only raise tensions with China. Taiwan would do better to be patient and lay low. Their only chance for independence is regime change in Beijing bringing a new outlook. For Chinese civilization as a whole, an independent Taiwan would be a good thing. Why is USA provoking this? The only thing that makes sense is we have a super-weapon and are planning to use it. ABN

China Launches Live-Fire Drills Off Taiwan With US Carrier Group Nearby, As Pelosi’s Plane En Route To Asia

According to prior comments from President Biden, the Pentagon wants House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to cancel her visit to Taiwan – but now pending her possible arrival in Taipei the US military has moved a Navy strike group into the South China Sea led by the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier.

The USS Reagan left a port call in Singapore and is now patrolling waters near China, with Beijing flexing its own military muscle by launching fresh naval exercises near the self-ruled island – and more worrisomely issuing threats that the PLA military is on stand-by to respond with “forceful measures” if needed.  Turkey’s EHA media outlet on Saturday is circulating (unverified) video purporting to show large US warplane formation flyovers of the South China sea, with destroyers below…

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China says it WILL shoot Pelosi’s plane down IF she travels to Taiwan under US fighter escort: Speaker refuses to confirm trip – as Beijing warns it would ‘cross a red line’ and aircraft carrier holds drills in the South China Sea

‘If US fighter jets escort Pelosi’s plane into Taiwan, it is invasion’ Hu Xijin, a commentator with the Chinese state-affiliated Global Times, wrote on Twitter

‘The PLA has the right to forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane and the US fighter jets, including firing warning shots and making tactical movement of obstruction’

‘If ineffective, then shoot them down’ Hu said 

Pelosi has not confirmed reports she will travel to Taiwan, only saying that she does not comment on her foreign travel plans for ‘security reasons’ 

The threat is a dramatic escalation in rhetoric as China grows increasingly agitated at the U.S.’s posture with Taiwan  

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US may be assessing China’s military response. From the article: “National Security Spokesman John Kirby said Friday the Pentagon has seen no indication of a military threat.” US may be provoking China with an eye to causing enough conflict to interfere with US elections this Fall, allowing for cancellation or another steal. US may be trying to provoke a Ukraine-style event in Taiwan. I do wonder if USA has a super-weapon because they are acting like they do. This is KOBK game-theory in action. ABN