Tag: technology

Coronavirus: fiasco, hoax, or the real thing?

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It would be a fiasco if preventative measures are far in excess of what is warranted; a hoax if a deliberate agenda lies behind the fiasco; the real thing if our worst projections are born out by facts we do not yet have.

John Ioannidis makes a strong argument that we should wonder if the global response to the virus is a fiasco:

…The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population. (A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data)

That the US response is a hoax or possibly a hoax is explained by sundance, a well-regarded conservative blogger:

…There’s been a debate about possible political motives surrounding the panic he has created; the massive economic damage he has inflicted; and the conflicting assertions of National Institute of Allergy and Infections Diseases (NIAID) Director Dr. Anthony Fauci.

CTH identifies the motives as sketchy.  He appears to use his position to advance theories and yet position himself to avoid scrutiny.

Sometimes within a 24 hour period Fauci will make a statement, then contradict the initial assertion, then attempt to cloud his own conflict with obtuse and wordy explanations. (Political Health – The Motives of a Very, Very, Political Dr. Fauci…)

If it’s the real thing, a real pandemic with unusually high mortality rates, then we still have many unknowns to consider. Chief among them is the question of whether the virus is a bioweapon or not. If it were a man-made bioweapon, its chemical and RNA structure should reveal that. If the virus evolved naturally, it still could have been used as a weapon.

If it was a weapon, was it released due to negligence or design? If by design, who did it? Since the virus first appeared in Wuhan, which is also the site of a virus research lab, the most likely explanation is it escaped into the general population due to negligence.

Other explanations are, the CCP did it deliberately as payback for losing its parasitic privileges in world trade; the US did it to finish the CCP off; someone else did it, possibly Russia or Israel (because Iran has also suffered badly).

Of course, there are many other possibilities worth considering. Variations on the coivd19 story read like prompts for playwrights.

From a Buddhist point of view, there is much to be gained from this catastrophe, no matter how it eventually comes to be seen. Life, death, impermanence, emptiness, the value of mindfulness, wisdom, and compassion are all stimulated producing heightened awareness and sensitivity to the miracle of existing at all.

Bioweapons and US research on them

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Dr Francis Boyle used to be a frequent bioweapons commentator on MSM. Until he said that the anthrax used in the post-9/11 attacks came from Ft Detrick. Then he disappeared from TV.

Boyle is still worth listening to. He claims, I think credibly, that the coronavirus was developed at a lab in North Carolina and was either shared with or stolen by China. China, according to Boyle, further weaponized the virus in Wuhan where it was negligently allowed to escape.

(I believe it is also worth considering that the CCP purposely released the virus to destabilize the Western capitalist system. Payback for losing the trade war.)

I do not agree with Boyle that the USA must stop bioweapons research. Since there is nothing the USA can do to stop bioweapon research in other countries, we would be foolish to stop it ourselves. If we stop it here (which we have not), other countries will quickly get ahead of us. Research in this field also includes finding vaccines and cures. Indeed, sharing research with other countries, as may have been done with China, is one reasonable way to stave off malicious use of these weapons.

Bioweapons are similar to nukes or the NSA database. Nothing will stop other countries from developing these weapons/tools, so we have to do it too.

I believe it would probably be a good idea for Trump to just come out and say basically what has been said above. This is a level of reality we all can understand. Once this level is admitted, we might also hope for more transparency and decency in how these tools are used (data-mining in particular) or dealt with (bioweapons in particular).

Here is a link to a recent Boyle interview:

https://banned.video/watch?id=5e61749ff40ae500aa048732

Bad news on coronavirus

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Here’s an article about it:

LONDON — Immediately after Boris Johnson completed his Monday evening news conference, which saw a somber prime minister encourage his fellow citizens to avoid “all nonessential contact with others,” his aides hustled reporters into a second, off-camera briefing.

That session presented jaw-dropping numbers from some of Britain’s top modelers of infectious disease, who predicted the deadly course of the coronavirus could quickly kill hundreds of thousands in both the United Kingdom and the United States, as surges of sick and dying patients overwhelmed hospitals and critical care units.

The new forecasts, by Neil Ferguson and his colleagues at the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, were quickly endorsed by Johnson’s government to design new and more extreme measures to suppress the spread of the virus.

The report is also influencing planning by the Trump administration. Deborah Birx, who serves as the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, cited the British analysis at a news conference Monday, saying her response team was especially focused on the report’s conclusion that an entire household should self-quarantine for 14 days if one of its members is stricken by the virus. (A chilling scientific paper helped upend U.S. and U.K. coronavirus strategies)

And here is the paper that article is based on:

…Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.

In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity.

We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.

Our analysis informs the evaluation of both the nature of the measures required to suppress COVID19 and the likely duration that these measures will need to be in place. Results in this paper have informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in the last weeks. However, we emphasise that is not at all certain that suppression will succeed long term; no public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time. How populations and societies will respond remains unclear. (Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand)

Here is a rebuttal of the above: REVIEW OF FERGUSON ET AL “IMPACT OF NON-PHARMACEUTICAL INTERVENTIONS…”

Why soap is the best way to remove coronavirus from skin and other surfaces

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This is a short and informative read on why soap works so well in preventing viral transmission. Soap is better than alcohol and disinfectant wipes.

Good overview of Game Theory as applied to Artificial Intelligence

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Game theory is experiencing a renaissance driven by the evolution of AI. What are some classic and new ideas that data scientists should be aware of.

Game theory is one of the most fascinating areas of mathematics that have influenced diverse fields such as economics, social sciences, biology and, obviously, computer science. There are many ways to think about game theory but one that I find really helpful, although overly simplistic, is:

game theory is probabilities with incentives

Games are playing a key role in the evolution of artificial intelligence(AI). For starters, game environments are becoming a popular training mechanism in areas such as reinforcement learning or imitation learning. In theory, any multi-agent AI system can be subjected to gamified interactions between its participants. The branch of mathematics that formulates the principles of games is known as game theory. In the context of artificial intelligence(AI) and deep learning systems, game theory is essential to enable some of the key capabilities required in multi-agent environments in which different AI programs need to interact or compete in order to accomplish a goal. (A Crash Course in Game Theory for Machine Learning: Classic and New Ideas)

Humidity is a major protectant from COVID-19. Both by reducing infection and reducing severity of symptoms.

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[I found the below text among comments on this page. There is no direct link to the comment itself. There are many supporting sources and the information sounds right. Additionally, no harm will come from upping indoor humidity. ABN]

Extremely important right now: Humidity is a major protectant from COVID-19. Both by reducing infection and reducing severity of symptoms.

I am a researcher who just wrote a paper on the subject. Please help me get the word out. This is not hype. Read all the papers on the subject.

If there is a pandemic in America, it could be Trump’s Waterloo.

Sincerely,
Daniel Hess

See below:

——————–

Defending Against COVID-19 Through Indoor Humidification
Daniel A. Hess
Virology Researcher, Rockville, MD
February 26, 2020

Overview
There is ample research showing that viral outbreaks similar to COVID-19 are strongly correlated with humidity levels. Cold and flu generally peak during the winter months in temperate zones, when indoor humidity is low. Notably, influenza and cold viruses tend to survive far longer in the air when the ambient humidity is low than when the ambient humidity is high. Further, there is strong evidence that the severity of respiratory infection is similarly humidity dependent, as lower humidity leads to more severe flu illness and greater likelihood of death. Influenza and COVID-19 are very similar in that death typically results from pneumonia that leads to acute respiratory failure.
Thus, indoor humidification, particularly to 50% relative humidity or higher, is seen as a strong partial defense against COVID-19, by two different mechanisms. First, by reducing the amount of time that virus particles remain infectious in the air, humidification is expected to substantially reduce R0, the reproductive number that represents outbreak contagiousness. Second, by reducing severity of respiratory infection, mortality rates from COVID-19, currently estimated at 2.3%, may be substantially reduced.
Indoor humidification is readily available almost everywhere and can be achieved by common humidifiers and even by boiling water in impoverished areas where humidifiers are not available. Available research strongly suggests that humidification in homes, hospitals, schools and other public areas will dramatically reduce both COVID-19 transmission and COVID-19 mortality among those who become infected. Even in areas where medical infrastructure becomes overwhelmed during pandemic conditions, indoor humidification will remain widely available as a defense against COVID-19 infection and severity.
Evidence so far is strong that COVID-19 exhibits climate and seasonal characteristics similar to influenzas and the common cold. By mimicking the environmental conditions of the summer months through indoor humidification, it is believed that COVID-19 incidence and severity will be sharply reduced.
Indoor humidification, especially to 50% relative humidity or higher, is likely to emerge as a robust tool that will be widely adopted as a defense against COVID-19.

I. Virus particles remain active longer in dry air than in humid air: citations

1. Noti et al. (2013) High Humidity Leads to Loss of Infectious Influenza Virus from Simulated Coughs. PLoS One. 2013; 8(2): e57485.

2. Tamerius JD, et al. (2013) Environmental predictors of seasonal influenza epidemics across temperate and tropical climates. PLoS Pathog 9:e1003194, and erratum 2013 Nov;9(11).

3. Shaman J, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Lipsitch M (2010) Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States. PLoS Biol 8(2): e1000316.

4. Shaman J, Goldstein E, Lipsitch M (2011) Absolute humidity and pandemic versus epidemic influenza. Am J Epidemiol 173: 127–135

5. Lowen AC, Mubareka S, Steel J, Palese P (2007) Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog 3(10): 1470–1476.

6. Schaffer FL, Soergel ME, Straube DC (1976) Survival of airborne influenza virus: effects of propagating host, relative humidity, and composition of spray fluids, Arch Virol. 51: 263–273.

7. Hanley BP, Borup B (2010) Aerosol influenza transmission risk contours: A study of humid tropics versus winter temperate zone. Virol J 7: 98.

8. Yang W, Marr LC (2011) Dynamics of airborne influenza A viruses indoors and dependence on humidity. PloS One 6(6): e21481.

9. Shaman and Kohn (2009) Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. PNAS March 3, 2009 106 (9) 3243-3248

II. Susceptibility to respiratory infection is greater when ambient humidity is low than when ambient humidity is high: citations

1. Kudo et al. Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function and innate resistance against influenza infection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019.

2. Makinen et al. Cold temperature and low humidity are associated with increased occurrence of respiratory tract infections. Respiratory Medicine, Volume 103, Issue 3, March 2009, Pages 456-462

3. Eccles R (2002) An explanation for the seasonality of acute upper respiratory tract viral infections. Acta Otolaryngol 122:183–191.

4. Iwasaki A, Pillai PS (2014) Innate immunity to influenza virus infection. Nat Rev Immunol 14:315–328.

5. Chen X, et al. (2018) Host immune response to influenza a virus infection. Front Immunol 9:320.

6. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (2008) The pathology of influenza virus infections. Annu Rev Pathol 3:499–522.

7. Bustamante-Marin XM, Ostrowski LE (2017) Cilia and mucociliary clearance. Cold Spring Harb Perspect Biol 9:a028241.

8. Oozawa H, et al. (2012) Effect of prehydration on nasal mucociliary clearance in low relative humidity. Auris Nasus Larynx 39:48–52.

9. Kudo E, et al. (2019) Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function, innate resistance against influenza infection. NCBI BioProject. Available at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ bioproject/PRJNA528197. Deposited March 20, 2019.

III. Applicability to COVID-19

The emergence of COVID-19 during winter in temperate zones strongly suggests that COVID-19 is similar to flu and cold viruses in its correlation with ambient humidity levels.
COVID-19 outbreaks to date have overwhelmingly been in temperate zones where indoor humidity in winter is low. To date, major outbreaks have occurred in China, Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran. Each of these outbreaks occurred in a temperate country in the midst of winter, where indoor humidity would be expected to be quite low. There are few cases and no known major outbreaks of COVID-19 in tropical and subtropical regions. Notably South America, Africa, and the Indian subcontinent have few reported cases and (as far as the author is aware) no known cases of local transmission, suggesting that the warm and humid conditions in those regions hinders COVID-19.
Singapore, notably, had what appeared to be the beginning of a major outbreak of COVID-19 around February 14, 2020. Instead the incidence of new COVID-19 infection in Singapore has since diminished dramatically and there have been no COVID-19 fatalities in that country. Most patients in Singapore who tested positive for COVID-19 have already recovered, as of this writing. This favorable outcome strongly suggests to the author that the warm and humid climate of Singapore has been protective against COVID-19 transmission and severity.
The environmental conditions of Singapore could be substantially replicated through indoor humidification, especially to 50% relative humidity or higher, and in this way major reductions in COVID-19 transmission and severity can be achieved in other countries.

IV. Preparing for Seasonal Re-Emergence
As noted, evidence available so far strongly suggests that COVID-19 contagiousness and severity are strongly dependent on ambient humidity levels, and thus COVID-19 occurrence is expected to diminish during the summer months.
However, re-emergence of COVID-19 during the winter of 2020-2021 is likely as indoor humidity levels in the Northern Hemisphere again drop. The author hopes that a COVID-19 vaccine will be available and in wide distribution by that time. This may require a reduction in the regulatory hurdles that slow the development of vaccines in the United States and elsewhere.

Are 1,200 bodies burned every day in mobile incinerators in Wuhan?

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This information is has not been confirmed but it comes from a famous Chinese dissident who also happens to be a billionaire. I do not believe he is lying. His information may be wrong, but many other signs point to a large pandemic that can no longer be contained. Watch the vid and decide for yourself.

https://twitter.com/TruthAbtChina/status/1231782255271522304

EDIT: Here is another tape from Guo.

https://twitter.com/Bobkrobinson1/status/1231923598949961728

What we know about COVID-19 and some speculation

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First, what we know:

Speculation based on what I have read, COVID-19:

  • is likely a bio-weapon that escaped from a BSL-4 (Biosafety level 4) laboratory in Wuhan, China
  • it could also be a dangerous naturally-occurring virus being studied at that lab
  • statistics on numbers of infected and deaths in China are grossly underreported
  • clusters appearing in other parts of the world and within institutions indicate significant likelihood that a worldwide pandemic may be unavoidable
  • the virus attacks through ACE 2 receptors in the lungs
  • at this point in time, this seems to indicate that Mongoloid-type individuals (who have more ACE 2 receptors than others) are more susceptible to the virus, though this has not been confirmed. Counterevidence includes: a) China is the epicenter and b) disease clusters are also appearing in Italy and Iran
  • the WHO has been very ineffective against COVD-19 and may have hindered early containment (due to political connections with China’s CCP)
  • the virus is highly contagious and can be spread by carriers who are entirely symptomless
  • thus, it is only reasonable to take extra precautions against transmission: clean hands, don’t touch your face, shower more often, avoid crowds, and keep your distance from others

As for whether COVID-19 is a bio-weapon, RNA analyses seem to show that it is an unusually contagious chimera that could not have occurred naturally. WHO and all governments have been downplaying the danger of the virus to avoid panic and/or angering China.

If the virus is eventually shown to be a bio-weapon, worldwide turmoil will ensue. The above is what I have gathered from reading about the virus. On a small site like this, we can be honest without worrying about contributing to worldwide panic.

My listing of probabilities and uncertain evidence above is a sort of Bayesian reasoning tree. If any of the parts change, the whole tree could also change. A few other pieces of evidence in this line of reasoning are: a) a bio-weapon pandemic has been predicted for decades, largely because bio-weapons exist and several have already escaped (Lyme, SARS, MERS, etc); and b) a simulation of just such a pandemic was conducted in October 2019.

EDIT: Twitter feed with frequent updates: #Covid19

Autocatalytic systems

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An autocatalytic system is a system that can “catalyze its own production”. Autocatalytic systems are usually called “autocatalytic sets”, but for our purposes using the word system may make the concept clearer.

FIML is an autocatalytic system that allows partners to reestablish the terms of their relationship, their psychologies, and their comprehension of the world around them. Strictly speaking, FIML is a non-autonomous autocatalytic set because FIML uses an abundance of language and ideas that come from outside of itself.

FIML is a small set of precise behaviors that allow partners to communicate with great clarity and without interpersonal ambiguity. Interpersonal ambiguity is the cause of much suffering. FIML does not tell partners what to think or what to believe. It simply provides them with a set of tools that gives them the means to develop in ways that seem best to them.

FIML is primarily a communication technique, but the discoveries it leads to will cause partners to remake their understandings of who they are and how they understand themselves. Once partners have learned the system, they will find that it autocatalyzes, causing them to remake themselves with a freedom that had not been possible before.

FIML differs greatly from mainstream psychology because mainstream psychology is not autocatalytic. It is analytical, theoretical, or medical. The individual sufferer seeks a professional who diagnoses their “problem” based on a static standard and then prescribes medication or some kind of therapy that will also be provided by an expert. In contrast, FIML teaches partners how to communicate with sufficient clarity to comprehend themselves. As it autocatalyzes, FIML quite naturally leads partners to make beneficial changes in themselves as they discover new meanings in each other and the world around them.

I had been searching for a word like autocatalytic for some time. This morning I came across the following piece, which led to this post: The Single Theory That Could Explain Emergence, Organisation And The Origin of Life. The study on which that article is based can be found here: The Structure of Autocatalytic Sets: Evolvability, Enablement, and Emergence.

I am sure I have taken a few liberties with my application of this theory, but went ahead with these ideas anyway because one of the key features of FIML practice is it “auto-generates” or autocatalyzes itself. Once you get going and see how to do it, FIML practice almost runs by itself, allowing partners near infinite freedom to pursue whatever they want with it.

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first posted  

1675: A PROCLAMATION FOR THE Suppression of Coffee-Houses

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Whereas it is most apparent, that the Multitude of Coffee-Houses of late years set up and kept within the Kingdom… have produced very evil and dangerous effects… as Tradesmen and others, do therein mis-spend much of their time, which might and probably would otherwise be iimployed in and about their Lawful Callings … and by occasion of the meetings of such persons therein, diverse False, Malitious and Scandalous Reports are devised and spread abroad, to the Defamation of His Majesties Government, and to the Disturbance of the Peace and Quiet of the Realm; his Majesty hath thought it fit and necessary, That the said Coffee-houses be (for the future) put down and supressed, and doth… Strictly Charge and Command all manner of persons, That they or any of them do not presume from and after the Tenth Day of January next ensuing, to keep any Publick Coffee-house, or to Utter or sell by retail, in his, her, or their house or houses (to be spent or consumed within the same) any Coffee, Chocolet, Sherbett or Tea, as they will answer the contrary at their utmost perils. (King Charles II Of England Banned Coffeehouses In 1675)

Facebook, Google, Reddit, Twitter, most MSM, and more, take note; the future is laughing at you. ABN

Always counterclockwise: Puzzle of early Neolithic house orientations finally solved

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Human behaviour is influenced by many things, most of which remain unconscious to us. One of these is a phenomenon known among perception psychologists as “pseudo-neglect.” This refers to the observation that healthy people prefer their left visual field to their right, and therefore divide a line regularly left of centre. (Always counterclockwise: Puzzle of early Neolithic house orientations finally solved)