An Unavoidable Trade War with Canada is Looming – Trigger Date July/August 2025

…Because the Canadian government became so dependent on their role as an assembly economy, they enmeshed with China in a way that made them dependent.  The political issues of Chinese influence within Canada are a direct result of this dynamic. In fact, China was the big winner from the outcome of the recent election because all of their investments into Canada are grounded on retaining Liberal government dependency.

If Trump targets China with punitive tariffs, the Canadian economy will be collaterally damaged.  Canada will end up paying a tariff rate because they use cheap Chinese component parts in their finished goods.  Canada has structurally designed their economy to do this over multiple years.

Understanding the unique nature of the Canadian economic conundrum, the only way to address the issue is to break out the USMCA into two separate bilateral trade agreements.  One set of trade terms for Mexico that leverages border security, and one set of trade terms for Canada that leverages NATO security and border security.  The only substantive similarity between them will be in the auto and agriculture sector.

If you think the multinational corporations, political leftists and UniParty Republicans in the USA are strongly opposing Trump now, just wait until later this year when the Trump administration proposes the elimination of the trilateral North American trade agreement, USMCA.

According to the World Bank, the USA economy is $27.3 trillion.  Canada is $2.1 trillion.

Do the math!

[…] The expectation, according to two people close to the White House, is that negotiations to permanently remove the threat of painful 25 percent tariffs on Canada — which Trump mostly rolled back earlier this month — and other sector-specific tariffs are likely to be folded into the upcoming review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. That review is due in 2026, but the Trump administration wants to accelerate to this calendar year.

“It makes sense to separate out Canada and Mexico from the rest because they are going to want to redo the USMCA,” said one of the people close to the White House, who were granted anonymity to discuss ongoing deliberations. “They’re going to have separate tariffs that focus specifically on Mexico and Canada, and they’re going to take some actions to squeeze them a little bit.” [LINK]

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The above is an excerpt from a very good article on Canada and its deeply weakened economy which depends overmuch on China. ABN

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