Did a Ukrainian Drone Strike Almost Kill Putin in Kursk? Unpacking Reports of a Danger to President

Alarge scale Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian Kursk region on May 20 was reported by Russian sources five days later to have coincided with a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Air defence division commander Yuri Dashkin reported regarding the incident that president while onboard his helicopter was “at the epicentre of repelling a large-scale attack by the enemy’s drones… The intensity of the attack during the flight of the aircraft with the Commander-in-Chief over the territory of the Kursk Region increased significantly. Therefore, we simultaneously conducted an air defence battle and ensured the safety of the presidential helicopter’s flight in the air.” Dashkin’s statement indicates that the president’s helicopter may have been at risk. Drones have on multiple occasions been used to bring down combat aircraft during flight, including heavily armoured Russian military helicopters, which can be vulnerable due to their large sizes and relatively slow speeds compared to fixed wing aircraft. 

A further danger during an attack by multiple drones remains the possibility of friendly fire by local air defences, with incidents of Russian and Ukrainian shootdowns of their own high value aircraft while seeking to repel enemy air attacks having been reported frequently since the outbreak of full scale hostilities between the two countries in February 2022. There remains a significant possibility that the presence of President Putin’s helicopter during the Ukrainian drone attack significantly complicated air defence efforts, potentially forcing defenders to rely on infrared guided missiles, anti-aircraft guns, and electronic warfare, to reduce the possibility of friendly fire harming the commander in chief. Incidents where heads of state have been placed in the line of fire having been few and far between in the past half century, in particular for the leaders of major military powers such as Russia. There remains a significant possibility that the Ukrainian drone strike may have been launched in the knowledge of Putin’s general location. 

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Bottom line — inconclusive. ABN

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