Iran regime close to collapsing

Iran is experiencing one of the most serious challenges to its theocratic rule since the 1979 revolution, with widespread protests and economic collapse placing the regime under unprecedented pressure The unrest, which began in late December 2025 with a merchants’ strike in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar over soaring prices and currency devaluation, has evolved into a nationwide political revolt spanning over 145 cities across 28 of Iran’s 31 provinces The Iranian rial has plummeted to around 1.4 million per US dollar, inflation has exceeded 50%, and food prices have surged more than 70% year-on-year, eroding public trust in the government’s ability to manage the economy

Protesters are no longer demanding reforms but are explicitly calling for regime change, chanting “Death to the dictator” and “This is the year of blood – Khamenei will be overthrown” The regime has responded with live fire, internet blackouts in major cities, and mass arrests, resulting in at least 30 deaths, mostly of young people, and hundreds injured Despite this, the intensity of the protests has not diminished, and demonstrations have spread to previously quiet towns and religious centers like Qom, signaling deepening societal unrest

The regime’s ideological foundation is also crumbling. The narrative that sacrifices in the form of economic hardship and military spending were necessary to challenge Israel and the West has been undermined by Israel’s decisive 12-day war in June 2025, which severely damaged Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and exposed its military weakness This has led to a crisis of legitimacy, with even President Masoud Pezeshkian admitting that failure to address economic grievances could lead the country “to hell”

A critical factor in the regime’s survival has been the loyalty of the military, particularly the regular armed forces (Artesh), which have historically refrained from political involvement while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) handled internal repression However, there are growing signs that the Artesh may no longer remain neutral. Officers, many of whom come from families suffering under the economic crisis, may begin to question their allegiance, especially if they perceive the regime as doomed Historical precedents, such as Romania in 1989 and Egypt in 2011, show that regime collapse often occurs when the military withdraws support

Analysts warn that while regime collapse is possible, it is not guaranteed The opposition remains fragmented and lacks centralized leadership, which could prevent a coordinated transition The regime still possesses coercive power, and hardliners may resist any move toward negotiation However, the combination of economic collapse, loss of ideological legitimacy, and potential military defection suggests that Iran may be approaching a tipping point

International rhetoric, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that the United States is “locked and loaded” to protect Iranian protesters, may further influence the calculations of Iranian military leaders, signaling potential external support for a break with the regime While such statements do not guarantee intervention, they contribute to the perception that the current regime is increasingly isolated and vulnerable

In sum, while the Iranian regime has not yet fallen, it is facing its most precarious moment in decades, with structural weaknesses, mass unrest, and potential fractures within the security establishment making collapse a real possibility