Ending the Infinity War — Scott Ritter

…The End Game?

While it is still early in the conflict, Iran appears to have maintained military momentum despite high-profile assassinations of senior Iranian military officials and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Claims that regime change objectives have stalled reflect the absence, thus far, of visible elite fragmentation inside Iran.

Moreover, Iran has targeted regional energy and infrastructure, plus threatened maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Any sustained closure of the strait would represent a major escalation; at present, the waterway is all but closed — with ships avoiding it due to insurance risk and increasingly threatening statements from Iranian officials.

Iran appears prepared for a conflict that could extend for months. By contrast, US and Israeli planning assumptions appeared to expect to be able to wrap up operations in days or weeks. The legality of the initial strikes also remains contested, and this issue is likely to shape international diplomatic pressure as economic consequences mount.

The question is whether Gulf Arab states may reassess aspects of their security relationships depending on perceptions of US deterrence credibility; Washington may confront force posture and sustainability challenges if the conflict becomes protracted.

The international community is likely to press for de-escalation, but the Iranian government sees this conflict as an existential threat, so any termination terms would need to reflect that calculation, or the war will not end.

link