When do you think the next shoe (US-Mexico Trade Pact) drops?

Not long after July 20th. Sometime within the first two weeks of August is highest probability.  

However, it depends on how far out on the ledge cult leader Mark Carney is willing to take his believers.  We will enter the ‘Trump playing with them’ phase, just like Trump played with them in Jan, Feb, March ’25 over the 51st state stuff…..  Trump will create turmoil, because he holds all the cards for when he triggers the next sequence of events.

Essentially, the landscape is already set up.  The bleachers are already built.  The venue is already selected….  The Canadians have no concept of it.

At a point determined by Trump he will invite them into the gauntlet. There is no escape and only one way in.

Carney sits down at the table, Trump announces his demands, Carney balks, Trump glances to Greer, Greer hands Carney the formal exit paperwork and then suddenly everyone around Carney realizes what just happened.  Trump set up a CUSMA trap.  

A six-month countdown clock now ticks loudly.  Trump repeats his demands.  Carney looks around at his trade delegation, then asks for a few moments.  They leave to huddle….

In the Canadian conference room, someone tells the group a six-month exit is now active.  The walls are slowly closing.  

If no terms are accepted, in six months all U.S. trade with Canada is immediately laissez-faire, no trade agreement backstops anything, meaning every trade is subject to the sectoral whims of the USA commerce department to outline the terms.

Carney asks his team what is happening.  Trump tells them to take all the time in the world to think about it, and to give Jamieson or Howard a call if they have questions.

Trump and Greer then hold a press conference, telling the world the formal exit paperwork has now been issued.  However, the U.S and Mexico already have a bilateral deal outlined and ready to begin, so U.S-Mexico trade is seamless.  The only issue is Canada.

The following day analysts, economists, banking and finance experts begin running the numbers for Canada……  A slow and unstable Canadian economy collapse begins first with a run on the banks by Canadian dollar holders.  Everyone needs to buy USD.

Europe and the U.K try to step in to assist by buying Canadian bonds….. but the risk is astronomical.

75% of Canada’s economy is based on trade that is now uncertain.

Suddenly the team around Carney look at things differently.  They realize Canada doesn’t sell 75% of their output to the USA; the USA buys 75% of Canadian output.  

In every economic relationship, the seller has no leverage. All leverage belongs to the buyer.  

The seller can sell anything, but without buyers they are nothing.  In a laissez-faire system suddenly U.S. buyers start to dictate terms and prices.  The seller has no option.  Life inside Canada is FUBAR.

The Chinese move quickly, buying up Canadian holdings for pennies on the ever-diminishing CAD.

The ‘shoe drops’ sometime after July 20th.

Canada cannot see the gauntlet.

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