Analysis of damage caused by Ukraine’s drone attack on Russia’s bomber fleet

Following the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ successful attacks on major strategic bomber facilities across Russia on June 1 under Operation Spider’s Web, questions regarding the extent of the damage to the Russian Aerospace Forces’ fleet have widely been raised, with the growing availability of satellite and drone footage providing some indications. The attack saw sizeable fleets of short range single use rotary wing drones launched from trucks deep within Russian territory, and engage targets as deep as 4000 kilometres away from Ukrainian borders. The Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, which is reported to have played the primary role in organising and carrying out the attack, reported regarding the means by which the attack was launched: “During the operation, modern UAV control technology was used, which combines autonomous artificial intelligence algorithms and manual operator intervention. In particular, some UAVs, due to signal loss, switched to performing the mission using artificial intelligence along a pre-planned route. After approaching and contacting a specifically designated target, the warhead was automatically triggered.”

Destroyed Tu-22M3 Bomber at Belaya Airbase and Multiple Intact Bombers

Ukrainian government sources were quick to claim the attack neutralised 41 Russian aircraft, the vast majority of them strategic bombers and A-50 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) systems. With sources from the country having frequently made highly dubious or outright false claims regarding Ukrainian military successes since the outbreak of full scale hostilities in February 2022, however, it was long expected that the actual losses, although highly detrimental to the Russian fleet’s capabilities, would be much more conservative. The estimate given by Andriy Kovalenko, an official on Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, that “at least 13 Russian aircraft were destroyed,” was considered far more credible.

Looking to satellite footage, the most impressive of all the SBU’s attacks was that launched against Belaya Airbase in Russia’s Irkutsk region near the Mongolian border, which permanently hosts Tu-22M3 medium range bombers. Satellite imagery has confirmed the destruction of four of the aircraft. In addition, three Tu-95MS intercontinental range strategic bombers which were temporarily stationed at the facility were also destroyed. Drone footage confirmed that the Tu-95 bombers were  already loaded with Kh-101 cruise missiles when targeted, likely in preparation for further sorties against Ukrainian targets. The impact of the drones appears to have detonated the missiles, ensuing the complete destruction of the aircraft. The strike on Belaya Airbase was also confirmed by satellite footage to have destroyed at least two Tu-22M3 bombers.