The probability that the US will return to Afghanistan and take Bagram,
is zero.
Airbases project power because they sit on logistics.
Bagram would put US assets astride Iran, central asia, and western china.
It’s like a perfect vantage point for surveillance and coercive bargaining.
But the US no longer controls the political, financial, or supply lines that made that occupation once feasible.
A literal return would demand either a deal with the Taliban that trades sanctions/recognition for a narrow counter-terror footprint,
or a costly confrontation that would spook markets, split partners, and hand rivals easy wins.
That statement from trump serves as posturing.
To remind everyone that the US can escalate, then convert that threat into better terms for over the horizon access.
The probability the US will return to Afghanistan and take Bagram is zero
American Buddhist Net 