Col Macgregor analysis of Western failure in Ukraine and beyond

Strong words from Macgregor. His analysis is reasonable but it’s based on the ‘incompetence’ of the Western elite, the same elite who managed to seize control of the entire West. So, are they really incompetent? Or do they have a plan and possibly a superweapon to ensure success of that plan? Notice this same elite allowed the 10/07 attack in Israel to happen and then escalated into a regional war (still ongoing) based on that, something Macgregor never mentions or fears to mention. This same elite is still driving ahead with NATO expansion and use of European troops in Ukraine as well as NATO weapons inside Russia. This same elite is playing with fire in China. It appears this elite wants WW3 because they believe or know they will prevail. How many billions will be killed is not something they care about. It’s part of the plan. This is KOBK, a morality ordinary people do not understand, which is why we are always baffled by their behavior. ABN

Study on connection between UFOs and America’s nuclear weapons concludes: They’re trying to stop us from annihilating ourselves

…a new, decades-long study has analyzed over 500 of the best supported UFO cases from the heights of the Cold War and hauntingly concluded: ‘This intelligence understands atomics, and they understand atomic weaponry.’

UFO reports over America’s nuclear arsenal appeared to shift from sites where the bombs were made to missile silos and US air bases as the Cold War arms race grew.

That’s one of the key findings from the new work, a series of three studies led by a retired US Air Force staff sergeant, Larry Hancock, and a data analyst affiliate with Harvard’s UFO-hunting Galileo Project, Ian Porritt, along with their research team.

The group focused their analysis on official military and police reports of UFOs from 1945 to 1975, avoiding poorly supported accounts and ambiguous newspaper stories, to focus on cases with multiple witnesses and signals evidence, like radar.

Their study, which only covered US cases, also used reports of UFOs spotted above non-nuclear army bases and nearby civilian centers to act as control groups to test against their findings of any UFO trends at America’s sensitive nuclear installations. 

Their qualified, but haunting conclusion: Data from this three decade-long period lends credence to the idea that extraterrestrials, or some other intelligence, has methodically surveilled America’s rise to a nuclear power

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Elitists of the West have everything to lose if Trump prevails and nothing to gain…

I like Eva’s sentiment but am not so sure myself. The usurpers who control the West—the ones we know about—have everything to lose if Trump prevails and nothing to gain. This leads to two likely continuations of this story depending on what the real conditions are: 1) the real usurpers who control the West are entirely secret and will benefit no matter how many of their front men are taken down by Trump; or 2) they will find another way to stop Trump. A third possibility is Trump himself is one of the secret usurpers openly playing a public role. I believe the probability of his role being only this is very low as that would mean he is completely fake, but surely even he is compromised to some extent; that’s politics after all. The question here is how much is he bluffing the usurpers? How much is he bluffing us? Despite his deficits (vaxxes, Gaza), which are serious, I am a pragmatist and still strongly support him. There is no better option and it’s not even close. One more point–I do not like saying this, but if Trump is not at least 85% compromised, the usurpers will try to kill him. He surely knows this and surely knows how to protect himself, but this is a real possibility, I fear. ABN

The danger of convicting with statistics: Courts have a bad history of using probability

Sally Clark had two sons. Both died within weeks of birth, a year apart, apparently of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS), sometimes called cot death. SIDS is — mercifully — rare; in England, at the time, it struck roughly one in 8,500 babies. That statistic led to Clark being prosecuted for double murder in 1998, despite there being little to no forensic evidence for her guilt.

A paediatrician, Roy Meadows, called as an expert witness for the prosecution, told the court that the probability of the two deaths happening by chance was one in 73 million: that is, 8,500 times 8,500.

As it happens, that’s not true. This calculation assumes that the deaths are entirely uncorrelated, but we know that SIDS can run in families and be affected by environmental conditions. If you have one case of SIDS in your household, while incredibly rare, you are more likely to have a second; the 73 million figure is orders of magnitude too high. But that wasn’t Meadows’s big mistake.

His big mistake was the following: he assumed that if the probability of the two deaths happening by chance was one in 73 million, then the probability that Sally Clark was innocent was one in 73 million as well.

But this is wrong. Crucially, catastrophically wrong. As wrong as assuming that because only one human in eight billion is the President of the United States, there’s only a one-in-eight-billion chance that the President of the United States is human.

Nonetheless, Meadows’s testimony helped convict Clark in 1999. She spent three years in jail before her conviction was overturned on appeal. Her life was, obviously, ruined. It will not surprise you to learn that she drank herself to death four years later, alone. It’s a haunting story.

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The importance of the Readiness Period for speech, listening, and decision making

Libet gave participants of his experiments a simple task, while measuring their brain activity: they had to decide to flex a finger whenever they wished, and note the position on a fast-moving clock at the precise moment they took the decision.

The result was that the brain showed activity at least 400ms before the participants became aware of their “decision making.”

Here’s a diagram showing what’s going on:1

“RP” stands for “Readiness Potential,” that is, the supposed build-up in brain activity before the decision to act and the subsequent action. What we see is that this brain activity starts before the participants became aware of their intention to flex the finger.

The results have led the no-Free-Will crowd to [falsely] exclaim, “see, everything is driven by your brain, and you taking decisions is just an illusion!”

However, this seems to be a typical case of taking something very specific and isolated out of context and then drawing conclusions based on existing biases.

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The exercise of free will in basic FIML is done during the “Readiness Potential” period described above. FIML done with a partner is an exquisite exercise of free will that completely changes how we speak and listen for the better. FIML is somewhat difficult because it requires being aware of the Readiness Potential period close to its onset. But this can be learned with practice. Buddhists or others who practice mindfulness may find this part of FIML to be rather easy. From this point of view, FIML can be described as mindfulness shared by two people, or pair-work mindfulness. FIML mostly focuses on interpersonal speech and listening but also includes all other interpersonal semiotics. More posts related to FIML and brain science can be found here. ABN

Analysis shows that ChatGPT produces incorrect answers more than 50% of the time

Our manual analysis shows that ChatGPT produces incorrect answers more than 50% of the time. Moreover, ChatGPT suffers from other quality issues such as verbosity, inconsistency, etc. Results of the in-depth manual analysis also point towards a large number of conceptual and logical errors in ChatGPT answers. Additionally, our linguistic analysis results show that ChatGPT answers are very formal, and rarely portray negative sentiments. Although our user study shows higher user preference and quality rating for human answers, users make occasional mistakes by preferring incorrect ChatGPT answers based on ChatGPT’s articulated language styles, as well as seemingly correct logic that is presented with positive assertions.

Is Stack Overflow Obsolete? An Empirical Study of the Characteristics of ChatGPT Answers to Stack Overflow Questions