Gonzalo Lira: “Pure speculation—what comes next: As Mariupol is wrapped up, Russian units will be redeployed from there to the cauldron around Kramatorsk. Same with the Kiev troop reduction.”

Pure speculation—what comes next:

As Mariupol is wrapped up, Russian units will be redeployed from there to the cauldron around Kramatorsk. Same with the Kiev troop reduction.

Those 60,000 AFU fighters trapped in that cauldron will either surrender or be annihilated.

1/

Once that main fighting force has been neutralized, the rest of that Ukraine army will likely collapse. By “collapse“, I mean they will simply give up.

The first collapse will be around Kharkov, the closest major concentration of AFU forces to the Kramatorsk encirclement.

2/

Once Kharkov falls, Odessa will be next. The Russians will take it over without firing a shot.

As in Kherson and Energodar, the Russian occupiers of Kharkov and Odessa will declare a utility debt jubilee, and insist everyone start using Russian rubles as the local currency.

3/

Dnepropetrovsk will likely declare itself an open city.

From Southwest Belarus, Belarusian and Russian troops will stream south in a guillotine, cutting off the western entrance to Ukraine, to stop weapons flows into the country. There will be no resistance or fighting.

4/

The peace treaty that will partition Ukraine and create Novorossiya (the newest member of the Russian Federation) will be signed in Kiev, and the signatories will be Ukraine Pres. Victor Medvedchuk and Vladimir Putin, both of whom will sign in person before December 31, 2022.

5/

Originally tweeted by Gonzalo Lira (@realGonzaloLira) on March 30, 2022.

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