Is Ukraine seeking to widen the war by invading Transnistria?

The Ukraine’s de facto propaganda minister, Oleksiy Arestovich, has threatened an invasion of Transnistria, the Russian-protected, Slavic-majority, longtime (since 1991) “breakaway” part of Moldova. 

In line with that, some goons—possibly the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s psychological operations branch—have been spreading “We will liberate Transnitria” digital propaganda posters in Ukrainian and Romanian.

Over this past week, “unknown” attackers launched three bazooka rounds at Transnistria’s State Security Ministry in Tiraspol; two Transnistrian towers for the rebroadcast of Russian radio were blown up by saboteurs; Ukrainian drones violated Transnistrian airspace; and, shots were fired across the border from the Ukraine in the vicinity of a major Transnistrian munitions depot (more on this location, below.)

Russia has between 1000 and 1500 soldiers in Transnistria.  Together with local Transnistrian forces (5000 regulars and many times that in reserves, in addition to police who likely have access to some heavier weapons), they should be able to hold off a total conquest by third-rate Ukrainian forces in the region. 


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