Even with conservative lag, we’re still at a 7-sigma Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality

MMWR Wk 35 Update from today's CDC drop.

First, the contention that lag adjust is no longer needed is misinfo. Ignore the idiots.

Below is our lag curve performance for this week – it is suitably conservative, AND as figures come out of lag, they are actually showing higher.

Now that we have addressed lag disinfo, let's jump right to Cancers. I capped this at 8-sigma & DID NOT EVEN USE the lag calcs here anyway.

The actuals, out of the lag window, are rising FAST – confirm my lag calcs as sound/conservative.

PFE is only a very small part of this.

Now remember, none of the Cancer metrics you just saw include

– records still missing
– records which were reassigned
– records still stuck in the R99 bucket (below)

This unattended record total jumped to 29,400 this week, as this curve was not worked at all.

Of course, this lack in diligence wrt R00-R99 data, throws doubt into every CDC number being released right now. Including – I do not have confidence that this Non-Natural Cause Mortality curve is correct.

We've no choice but to take it at face value & watch its dynamics.

Even with conservative lag, we’re still at a 7-sigma Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality.

The plan taking shape right now is to code all these anomalous deaths as an ICD-10 code for 'Long Covid'. πŸ™„

This action is a tacit admission that we are correct, and they know it.

Our conservative lag shows the Excess All Cause Mortality tailing off (which it may not indeed be doing).

Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality is at its typical ~8%-points higher than the E-ACM metric.

Use to gauge Europe (for which I have not seen this method used).

Originally tweeted by Ethical Skeptic β˜€ (@EthicalSkeptic) on September 14, 2022.

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