The number that summarizes the past 2.5 years of post-BLM life in America. But why?
- 4.5% of Black Males will commit murder in their lifetime as of 2021, if we choose to do nothing about the ongoing epidemic of violence.
- 4.4% to 7.2% of yearly Black Male deaths are homicides every single year, with no exceptions, since at least 1968. Over 90% of these are Black Male-on-Black Male.
- 4.35% is the backward-looking 60-year murder victimization rate of Black Males age 15-74, based on the 410,000 actual murder victims since 1968.
- These are the low-end of what the rates could be in reality, given the large number of “unknowns” in the FBI data and the large number of “indeterminate” violent deaths coded by the CDC.
- What about repeat offenders, you ask? The most extreme assumptions can bring the 4.5% down to as low as 3.3%. I ask: does that change our conclusions? Do we continue decarceration on the off-chance that only 3.3% will commit murder?