Tag: analysis
Kremlin issues final warning to Kiev ‘decision-making centers’
Gonzalo Lira outlines serious consequences for US seizing assets of Russian citizens
I’m having a hard time pinning this down, but apparently NSA Jake Sullivan said at the Economic Club that the US won’t return assets seized from Russian citizens, even after the end of the conflict.
This is theft based on nationality.
This is insane — let me explain why.
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By violating property rights based on nationality, it puts every country on notice that its citizens’ property in the US will be stolen if the country runs afoul of US foreign policy.
If you’re Chinese, Indian, Pakistani, Singaporean, even Hungarian—you should be nervous.
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Even if you are a US resident, if your country is sanctioned by the US, you will have your property stolen by the US government.
They did it to Russian citizens — Jake Sullivan proudly announced it. So what makes you think they won’t steal your property?
Continue reading “Gonzalo Lira outlines serious consequences for US seizing assets of Russian citizens”Dual-Process Theories of the Mind as means to analyze real-world, real-time interpersonal data
…Despite their differences, dual-process theories share the common idea that thoughts, behaviors, and feelings result from the interaction between exogenous and endogenous forms of attention. Both types of attention can be applied to representations to increase or decrease their level of activation. As the activation level of a representation increases, so does its accessibility, which in turn increases the probability that it will influence behavior.
Individual Differences in Working Memory Capacity and Dual-Process Theories of the MindIn times of conflict[When a FIML query is initiated], accessibility can be managed (i.e., maintained or inhibited) during the stream of processing by the control of attention. In a sense, the “source” of attention (LaBerge, 2000), that is, whatever mechanism that applies the activation to the representation, can be thought of as the gateway of accessibility that is the essence of controlled processing.
FIML practice is a form of mindfulness training with the addition of controlled attention processing which enables rapid gathering of real-world data followed by analysis thereof. This controlled attention processing is a learned behavior shared by both partners. The general concept of this learned/trained behavior is explained in How to do FIML. Individual partners adapt this learned/trained behavior to their own lives. In this sense FIML itself has no content. It is wholly a technique that allows rapid analysis of agreed upon objective interpersonal data. ABN
“The global fracture around Russia/Ukraine is clear as day”
As covid waned, they riled the bear. Same Great Reset. If covid comes back, same Great Reset. Whatever happens, same Great Reset. ABN
China’s shutdown of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangdong explained: “China is desperately in need of crude oil, LNG, food, basic materials, base metals, and more”: Kyle Bass
[I take great exception to Bass’s take on Russia/Ukraine but not his take on China and their lockdowns, which is why I am posting this. ABN]
Another take on China’s shutdown of Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangdong, etc. China is desperately in need of crude oil, LNG, food, basic materials, base metals, and more. Putin’s invasion/massacre has created additional energy scarcity, inflation, and skyrocketing food inflation. 1/12
Whilst China hasn’t had any material problems with the virus from Wuhan in the past, it’s interesting that their draconian lockdowns (in conjunction with telegraphing the purchase of fewer cargos of LNG and crude) are forcing global economists to ratchet growth expectations 2/12
lower whilst concurrently shifting future demand projections for commodities lower. Everything China desperately needs to acquire is trading down in price as a result of the lockdowns. If we all take a look back, the primary driver of China’s current account moving into 3/12
negative territory happened to be the Chinese citizens traveling and spending abroad(they could only spend USD, EUR, YEN, etc).COVID abruptly halted Chinese travel,gave the CPC supreme censorship power (Chinese travelers no longer open to uncensored internet) 4/12
and allowed a crushing takeover of Hong Kong without further incident (COVID appeared at the zenith of HK protests). Either the occurrences of COVID are perfectly coincidental (and incredibly helpful to the CPC’s existential crises) or a much more insidious modus operandi 5/12
is at work. Remember, rampant food price inflation was one key grievance that led to the Tiananmen Square protests/massacre as well as the Arab Spring. It’s too late for Xi and the world to avoid the food price spike as it will certainly worsen next year given input pricing. 6/12
Continue reading “China’s shutdown of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangdong explained: “China is desperately in need of crude oil, LNG, food, basic materials, base metals, and more”: Kyle Bass”Rich Hoffman (Scientific Coalition for UAP Studies)
“Ukraine’s Fate Is Now in Russia’s Hands”: Interview with Marko Marjanović, Editor of Anti-Empire
…This is a battle that is already 6-weeks old, it is just that until now the Russians didn’t have forces in the theater sufficient for truly spectacular success — because they were not focusing on this theater. Now they are getting massive reinforcements and if they stay true to the best Russian military traditions they will use them all at once and in a way that aims for something big, rather than squander them piecemeal.
How the battle is resolved won’t determine the outcome of the war, but it will determine whether there is a future for the Ukrainian military on the left bank outside cities.
If the Ukrainian army in the Donbass is encircled and marched into captivity then it would demonstrate the folly of trying to hold solid lines against the Russians out in the open.
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This is a very different analysis than what is generally provided by Scott Ritter, Larry Johnson, the Saker and Colonel Doug MacGregor. ABN
The importance of fuzzy lines in maintaining a sane world
Online speech restrictions make sense up to a point. There is a reasonable line in there somewhere. Twitter is going way to far in only one direction, so almost all of us see its restrictions are unreasonable and probably unsustainable. This situation illustrates 1) the importance of lines, and 2) that lines are necessarily fuzzy, and 3) that even fuzzy lines have to be firm in the right places.
Over the past six decades, USA has waffled too much on our fuzzy lines, both legal and cultural. Fuzzy lines are hard to draw and hard to keep firm. Trump’s border wall is an example of a successful firm fuzzy line as were his immigration policies. TBH, gay marriage probably went to far. It crossed a fuzzy line of accepting homosexuality probably too much. Once crossed, all manner of gender “rights” have made even human identities fuzzy. Today, “abortion rights” are even beginning to include the right to kill your “perinatal” infant.
In thinking about fuzzy lines it is crucial that we all recognize that all cultures are fundamentally held together by Lowest Common Denominator behavioral rules and as such are kind of stupid and very easy to attack. All cultures are held together with fuzzy lines. No culture is perfect. All cultures can be destabilized by constantly pushing against their fuzzy lines. Some pushing is good. Too much pushing is bad. Don’t make perfect be the enemy of good enough. Don’t allow woke to be the enemy of reason. Or anyone’s sexuality or identity the enemy of a reasonably well-functioning society. It’s not easy to do this right but it is not impossible either and it must be done or chaos ensues. ABN
US TeeVee Nuz duz Ukraine
The Reasons For And Dangers Behind The War In Ukraine
The war in the Ukraine continues but the propaganda hysteria around it seems to have calmed down a bit as reality is setting in.
This gives room from more sane voices to be heard by the public. I will start with the Russian ones.
The Russian ambassador to the U.S., Anatoly Antonov, was interviewed by Newsweek. He explained Russia’s political and judicial reasoning behind the war:
“The special operation in Ukraine is the result of the unwillingness of the Kiev regime to stop the genocide of Russians by fulfilling its obligations under the international commitments,” Antonov told Newsweek. “The desire of the NATO member states to use the territory of a neighboring state to establish a foothold in the struggle against Russia is also obvious.”
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“Very interesting—but maybe very wrong: The London Times alleges 150 FSB officers have been fired—and some arrested—over failures in Ukraine”
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Very interesting—but maybe very wrong: The London Times alleges 150 FSB officers have been fired—and some arrested—over failures in Ukraine.
The problem is the source of the story: @bellingcat, a known CIA front and purveyor of disinformation.
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Let’s keep an open mind.
The Times: “All of those ousted were employees of the Fifth Service, a division set up in 1998 when Putin was director of the FSB to carry out operations in the countries of the former Soviet Union with the aim of keeping them within Russia’s orbit.”
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More: “The service’s former chief, Sergei Beseda, 68, has been sent to Lefortovo prison in Moscow.”
Beseda is the same age as Putin—they were probably friends or at least friendly for +25 years. So to send such a colleague to prison is an incredibly powerful message.
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I would speculate that of these 150 FSB who were fired, most would have have been incompetent—but of the arrested, some might have been ~compromised by Ukrainian intelligence~. And now with the invasion, the FSB might have found evidence of this treason.
Just a thought.
Originally tweeted by Gonzalo Lira (@realGonzaloLira) on April 12, 2022.
Shanghai 2022 looks very much like a repeat of Wuhan 2020. Both China and USA are using covid to justify authoritarianism and election interference
Once again, I am impressed with Carlson who seems to really be speaking the truth. In the past there was always something missing in his deliveries—a gravitas of thought and insight—but not recently in the videos I have seen, including this one. ABN
“The thing that I am talking about is [vaccines are] generating a virus that is highly infectious and highly virulent and RESISTANT to ANY KIND of covid-19 vaccine… that is the end-stage where this virus is going… People think Omicron is a sign that the pandemic is waning and is disappearing. That is NOT TRUE AT ALL…We need to intervene with MASS ANTIVIRAL PROPHYLAXIS”: Geert Vanden Bossche
Since the covid vaccines generate NON-STERILIZING antibodies, continued use of them INCREASES evolutionary pressure on the virus; that is the vaccines are SELECTING FOR viral variants that can evade the vaccines and even use the vaccine-induced NON-STERILIZING antibodies to become MORE VIRULENT, MORE DEADLY. If we don’t stop mass boosters, Vanden Bossche warns, many vaccinees will DIE. ABN
American Buddhist Net 