Rational actor, muddled actor

The notion in economics that humans are “rational actors” has been widely and rightly criticized. Here is the basic argument against “rational choice theory” in economics as put by Edward J. Nell and Karim Errouaki:

To make rational calculations projectible, the agents may be assumed to have idealized abilities, especially foresight; but then the Inductive Problem is out of reach because the agents of the world do not resemble those of the model. The agents of the model can be abstract, but they cannot be endowed with powers actual agents could not have. This also undermines Methodological Individualism; if behaviour cannot be reliably predicted on the basis of the ‘rational choices of agents’ a social order cannot reliably follow from the choices of agents. (Source)

The problem is even worse when it comes to linguistics. All people much of the time are neither rational speakers nor rational listeners.

Speech arises out of complex mental, emotional, and environmental conditions. As speakers, we are often not aware of many of those conditions. The same is true for listeners. When the muddled aspects of speaking and listening are added together, the problem is made worse.

An even deeper problem is most muddled speech and listening never gets figured out. In place of clear mutual understanding, we normally go with muddled interpretations of what people are saying and how they understand what we have said.

Be mindful of what you say and how you are being understood. Listen carefully to others and notice how you are understanding what they are saying. It’s a very messy process even when topics are concrete and carry little or no emotional valence.

If basing a model of economics on “rational actors” does not work, the situation is far worse for psychology, anthropology, sociology, linguistics, history, and more. The problem is worse because economic behavior is simpler than linguistic behavior, which underlies all of these subjects.

A good model of sociology might say something like this: People are emotionally and mentally muddled and they communicate very badly with each other except in simple situations or on the basis of simple semiotic models they already agree on and have been trained in. Culture, therefore, is little more than the simple semiotic models people use to communicate because they don’t know how to communicate in any other way.

A model for psychology might say something like this: Most people have profound emotional problems because they cannot communicate with others except in simple situations or on the basis of simple semiotic models they already agree on and have been trained in by experience. This is a disaster in intimate interpersonal relationships, often leading to anger, sadness, alienation, and depression.

A model for history might say: The above two paragraphs describe major historical forces that are as significant as economic and environmental forces. (This is why ‘history’ is so easily rewritten by those in power.)

We won’t fix the world just yet or change the course of history, but as individuals we can do something about this with our best friends and life partners. FIML corrects these problems because FIML exposes communication errors and corrects them while they are happening. If communication errors are not caught while they are happening (at least a good deal of the time), partners will be forced to rely on simple semiotics, simple extrinsic cultural norms, to conduct their emotional lives together, and that is a recipe for disaster.

People are muddled actors when it comes to communication and this is a serious problem when it comes to intimate interpersonal communication. But we can become much more rational and communicate much more clearly with at least one other person by using FIML techniques.

first posted AUGUST 1, 2012

China’s Lost Decade for Investors Has Already Happened

Any hope that postpandemic reopening would lead to a return to rapid economic growth has floundered

To understand the problem, go back to basics. Growth comes from only three places: more people, more capital or better use of workers and capital—higher productivity. China won’t have more workers, as its population began to shrink last year.

Throwing more capital at the economy got it into its current problems, as companies and governments borrowed far too much to build.

That leaves productivity.

U.S. visitors to the gleaming metropolis of Shanghai taking the high-speed train to Beijing and paying for everything on their phones will be wowed by the technology.

But productivity is everywhere except in the statistics, where it has been falling for more than a decade after an extraordinary period of growth that followed China’s entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001. Weak earnings and low share prices are the natural corollary of weak productivity, and the government is standing in the way of improvement.

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Related: Mexico surpassed China as the top U.S. trading partner

US, Dutch set to hit China’s chipmakers with one-two punch

June 29 (Reuters) – The United States and the Netherlands are set to deliver a one-two punch to China’s chipmakers this summer by further restricting sales of chipmaking equipment, part of the countries’ ongoing effort to prevent their technology from being used to strengthen China’s military.

While the Dutch are planning to curb certain equipment from national champion ASML, and other companies, the U.S. is expected to go one step further and use its long reach to withhold even more Dutch equipment from specific Chinese fabs.

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“It’s not who the president is- it’s who’s controlling the wallet of the president” — O’Keefe Media Group

BOOM! Ron DeSantis Privately Tells Corporate Donors He is Against U.S Tariffs on Chinese Goods

This is the big one.  The Economic Policy is the distinct and singular policy at the core of Make America Great Again.  The MAGA coalition is centered around the principles of America-First economics, and Ron DeSantis has just admitted he does not support them.

CTH has long warned about Ron DeSantis economic policy being driven by the donors who fund him.  When he was in congress DeSantis voted in support of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) for President Obama, and DeSantis voted in support of the Trans-Pacific Trade Agreement (TPA).

These are the trade policies supported by the Club for Growth who was congressman DeSantis biggest funder.  The Club for Growth also held the pre-announcement donor fundraiser in February of this year in support of DeSantis ’24.

The Wall Street billionaire, hedge fund, multinational corporate alliance that assembles at Sea Island and funds Ron DeSantis are fully against America-First trade and economic policies.  DeSantis has just made an admission of his alignment with that corporate “globalist” outlook to a private confab of donors in California.

The DeSantis campaign is in full panic and retreat mode now that his establishment position is exposed.  The statements during the secret meeting were leaked.

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UPS workers vote to strike, setting stage for biggest walkout since 1959

UPS workers are gearing up for a potential strike that would be the biggest U.S. labor walkout since the 1950s.

Members of the Teamsters union, which represents about 340,000 workers at the package delivery company, voted overwhelmingly on Friday to strike if no agreement is reached with UPS by the time the current contract expires on July 31.

“If this multibillion-dollar corporation fails to deliver on the contract that our hardworking members deserve, UPS will be striking itself,” Teamsters President Sean O’Brien said in a statement. “The strongest leverage our members have is their labor and they are prepared to withhold it to ensure UPS acts accordingly.”

Some 97% of voting members approved a strike, although the voting turnout was not immediately known.

The union is seeking higher pay; the elimination of so-called two-tier wages, where newer workers are paid less than older employees for the same job; the removal of surveillance cameras from delivery trucks; and more full-time jobs.

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BlackRock owns Ukraine

This result is a big part of why Zelensky pursued annihilation of Ukrainian young men and virtual banishment of everyone else. Ukraine has lost about 50% of its population to death and flight from the region, to which most say they will never return. Arguably the most corrupt nation in the world has been destroyed and is now being dismembered. It was never a model of democracy and Zelensky was never a hero. The most we can hope for now is no WW3 which is all too possible due to NATO/neocon intransigence, KOBK madness. ABN

New York Times Gains Insider Information on Twitter Revenue, Expanded Financials Look Worse Than Former Estimates

Bottom line, Musk has to make decisions through one prism, THE ECONOMICS.  Musk’s decision-making, pro freedom or not, is constrained by this financial dependency. Hence, a lot of the platform censorship elements remain (including some personnel) and now the outreach to appoint Google/WEF approved Linda Yaccarino in an effort to enhance the revenue.

When you are perplexed about Musk decision making….  THERE’S YOUR ANSWER.

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This is very good analysis of Musk’s predicament. It probably roughly explains Anheuser-Busch, Target, and other large corporations who are being forced to follow Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) guidelines to get good marks on the Corporate Equality Index (CEI) or lose financial backing. See this for more: The Corporate Equality Index and the ESG Racket. ABN

How do the Americans wage economic war against France? — Arnaud Montebourg, former French Minister of Economy explains

Incredible, and maybe even unprecedented, answer by Arnaud Montebourg – former French Minister of Economy – to the question “what method do the Americans use to wage economic warfare against us?”

“They use military tools. First of all, they use all the listening and intelligence systems that they built on after 9/11. They don’t listen to terrorists…well they certainly do and that’s very good…but they listen to foreign companies that compete with theirs.

So it’s very simple, it became clear in 2014 when Snowden revealed that there were 75 million conversations and emails that had been exploited by the NSA on France, on French companies. When Pierucci – a man who should wear the Legion of Honor today because he defended France rather than its interests by agreeing to serve two unjustified years in prison in US jails in the Alstom affair… when Mr. Pierucci was taken into custody in Manhattan by the prosecutors they put under his nose 1 million emails. How did they get 1 million emails? By illegal eavesdropping. 1 million emails: it would have taken a lawyer 3 years to read through them… so he couldn’t defend himself. So those are the military tools.

Second, they have a tool called extraterritorial law. The Americans are using a form of law, which is an imperialist law, which consists in declaring themselves competent for matters which in no way concern them.

Musk Outlines the Financials of Twitter – Platform Content is Determined Through the Prism of Revenue

Twitter CEO Elon Musk has provided some convincing commentary about his willingness to forgo revenue in order to retain “free speech.” However, more recently he has qualified that outlook by saying “freedom of speech is not the same as freedom of reach.”  Musk noting Twitter will block, remove, censor, shadow ban, deboost, downrank and stop content from amplifying based on the determination of those in charge of Twitter content.

This controlled “freedom of reach” perspective, which is really shadow-banning in practice, is generally accepted and now admitted.  Against this backdrop it becomes important to understand the priorities of the platform to understand the guidelines of the platform.  Within this context the financials are key to understanding what elements are included within “approved content.” {GO DEEP}

Twitter is now a private company, therefore understanding the financials of Twitter is a little more challenging than when they were required to post their financial statements publicly.  However, Elon Musk gave an interview with the Babylon Bee yesterday and revealed some of the internal financial challenges. [VIDEO HERE]  I am going to summarize the status of the Twitter financial position according to what Musk himself revealed.

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Bottom line is we need to find another way to have a widely-used free-speech platform that makes money. Right now and all along all of them are controlled by money/advertisers, including Twitter, to say nothing of the wills of their owners or owners handlers. Near total mind-control rules the land. (One good thing about being shadow-banned is I never see any advertisements :) ABN

Eating Disorder Helpline Fires Staff, Transitions to Chatbot After Unionization

Executives at the National Eating Disorders Association (NEDA) decided to replace hotline workers with a chatbot named Tessa four days after the workers unionized. 

NEDA, the largest nonprofit organization dedicated to eating disorders, has had a helpline for the last twenty years that provided support to hundreds of thousands of people via chat, phone call, and text. “NEDA claims this was a long-anticipated change and that AI can better serve those with eating disorders.

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