Why aren’t we hearing about COVID waves anymore? Because COVID is at ‘a high tide’ — and staying there

It’s called infection-acquired seroprevalence, and it reflects the presence of COVID antibodies in people’s blood due to infection.

Before the Omicron wave began in late December 2021, infection-acquired seroprevalence was around six per cent of Canadians. By this past February, it had jumped to a stunning 77 per cent.

That means at least 27 million Canadians were infected between Dec. 1, 2021, and Jan. 31, 2023, according to the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force, a national group of experts formed to determine the extent of COVID infection in Canada.

“That’s what we call the Omicron tsunami,” says Dr. Tim Evans, executive director of the task force and a professor at McGill University. “It just gives you a sense of how transmissible the Omicron variant has been. It continues even today to be very widespread in Canada, and this is unlike any of the previous variants, which were much less transmissible.”

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This was predicted by Geert Vanden Bossche. People have antibodies for Omicron but they are vaccinal non-neutralizing antibodies, meaning they do not ‘kill’ the virus but assist it. With each reinfection people call up again more non-neutralizing antibodies. Vanden Bossche’s fear is that the virus will become more virulent but no less transmissible due to ongoing evolutionary conditions such as these. ABN

‘The only scenario that adds up is simply, the US are lying’

1) What evidence do we have that China played a role in the creation of SARS-CoV-2?

Because an outbreak occurred in Wuhan?

Why is the assumption now that this was an unintentional leak by China, as opposed to a biological attack on Chinese soil?

2) Also, the geopolitical math doesn’t add up.

Russia and China have formed a close diplomatic and militaristic alliance. Russia and China have both accused “Western Oligarchs” of creating SARS-CoV-2.

Why would Russia buddy up to China, if China created SARS-CoV-2?

Continue reading “‘The only scenario that adds up is simply, the US are lying’”

‘The variants monitored across the globe in the most decentralized sequence surveillance ever performed show no sign of your swarm’ — Kevin McKernan to Mathew Crawford and probably JJ Couey

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This Twitter thread will not unroll. It can be found here. It is a strong refutation of the idea (first proposed by JJ Couey, I believe) that covid has been a psyop ornamented with swarms of ‘infectious clones’ deliberately released to provide newsworthy symptoms and positive PCR tests in enough parts of the world to make the pandemic look real. McKernan believes the pandemic is based largely on fraudulent PCR tests. The open debate and evidence based ideas presented are healthy and I am glad to see this happening. ABN

Geert Vanden Bossche Warns Coming Super Variant ‘Could Put an End to Western Civilization’

I have not yet had time to watch this but am posting it anyway. Vanden Bossche’s hypothesis of a super-variant proliferating wildly due to vulnerabilities in the vaccinated does not seem as strong today as it did a year ago. It is still worth considering though. Even if I thought Vanden Bossche was wrong, I would post this anyway because he has been a major figure in the covid debates. I greatly respect him for putting everything on the line and saying what he believes come what may. He took a personal risk to protect others and surely convinced many not to take the vax. ABN

UPDATE: Vanden Bossche brackets one end of the dissident covid position. He firmly believes there is a virus that is evolving variants that are able to evade the vaxxes. At the other end, Mike Yeadon and Kevin McKernan both have expressed the view that the plandemic is a psyop which has been built on PCR testing fraud. Yeadon does not believe there even is a virus, while McKernan believes there is a mild one. JJ Couey believes the plandemic was a military operation involving frequent releases of infectious clones which caused severe symptoms in some people and were picked up by the PCR tests, falsely lending credibility to the official narrative. The Ethical Skeptic has detailed the evolution of covid variants and claims that China probably released a mild variant in 2019 or earlier that served to inoculate the Chinese population against more serious variants which appeared later. In this context, Vanden Bossche has many compelling things to say about where the world is now with covid. His underlying analysis has remained the same while also necessarily adapting to the changing dynamics of covid. I highly recommend viewing his presentation. ABN

Of 738 machine learning researchers polled, 48% gave at least a 10% chance of an extremely bad outcome

I’m scared of AGI. It’s confusing how people can be so dismissive of the risks.

I’m an investor in two AGI companies and friends with dozens of researchers working at DeepMind, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google Brain. Almost all of them are worried.

Imagine building a new type of nuclear reactor that will make free power.

People are excited, but half of nuclear engineers think there’s at least a 10% chance of an ‘extremely bad’ catastrophe, with safety engineers putting it over 30%.

That’s the situation with AGI. Of 738 machine learning researchers polled, 48% gave at least a 10% chance of an extremely bad outcome.

Of people working in AI safety, a poll of 44 people gave an average probability of about 30% for something terrible happening, with some going well over 50%.

Remember, Russian roulette is 17%.

Continue reading “Of 738 machine learning researchers polled, 48% gave at least a 10% chance of an extremely bad outcome”

Pausing AI Developments Isn’t Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down — Eliezer Yudkowsky

…To visualize a hostile superhuman AI, don’t imagine a lifeless book-smart thinker dwelling inside the internet and sending ill-intentioned emails. Visualize an entire alien civilization, thinking at millions of times human speeds, initially confined to computers—in a world of creatures that are, from its perspective, very stupid and very slow. A sufficiently intelligent AI won’t stay confined to computers for long. In today’s world you can email DNA strings to laboratories that will produce proteins on demand, allowing an AI initially confined to the internet to build artificial life forms or bootstrap straight to postbiological molecular manufacturing.

If somebody builds a too-powerful AI, under present conditions, I expect that every single member of the human species and all biological life on Earth dies shortly thereafter.

There’s no proposed plan for how we could do any such thing and survive. OpenAI’s openly declared intention is to make some future AI do our AI alignment homework. Just hearing that this is the plan ought to be enough to get any sensible person to panic. The other leading AI lab, DeepMind, has no plan at all.

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The problem with AI is a gigantic version of the problems all humans face in interpersonal relations—trust. ABN

‘It’s a dangerous race that no one can predict or control’: Elon Musk, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak and 1,000 other tech leaders call for pause on AI development which poses a ‘profound risk to society and humanity’

Elon Musk and 1,000 other technology leaders including Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak are calling for a pause on the ‘dangerous race’ to develop AI, which they fear poses a ‘profound risk to society and humanity’ and could have ‘catastrophic’ effects. 

In an open letter on The Future of Life Institute, Musk and the others argued that humankind doesn’t yet know the full scope of the risk involved in advancing the technology. 

They are asking all AI labs to stop developing their products for at least six months while more risk assessment is done. 

If any labs refuse, they want governments to ‘step in’. Musk’s fear is that the technology will become so advanced, that it will no longer require – or listen to – human interference. 

It is a fear that is widely held and even acknowledged by the CEO of AI – the company that created ChatGPT – who said earlier this month that the tech could be developed and harnessed to commit ‘widespread’ cyberattacks.  

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Like a fast-growing Covid variant, AI will become the dominant source of knowledge simply by virtue of growth ~ Peter Nixey

I’m in the top 2% of users on StackOverflow. My content there has been viewed by over 1.7M people. And it’s unlikely I’ll ever write anything there again. Which may be a much bigger problem than it seems. Because it may be the canary in the mine of our collective knowledge. A canary that signals a change in the airflow of knowledge: from human-human via machine, to human-machine only.

Don’t pass human, don’t collect 200 virtual internet points along the way. StackOverflow is *the* repository for programming Q&A. It has 100M users & saves man-years of time & wig-factories-worth of grey hair every single day. It is driven by people like me who ask questions that other developers answer.

Or vice-versa. Over 10 years I’ve asked 217 questions & answered 77. Those questions have been read by millions of developers & had tens of millions of views. But since GPT4 it looks less & less likely any of that will happen; at least for me. Which will be bad for StackOverflow. But if I’m representative of other knowledge-workers then it presents a larger & more alarming problem for us as humans.

What happens when we stop pooling our knowledge with each other & instead pour it straight into The Machine? Where will our libraries be? How can we avoid total dependency on The Machine? What content do we even feed the next version of The Machine to train on? When it comes time to train GPTx it risks drinking from a dry riverbed. Because programmers won’t be asking many questions on StackOverflow. GPT4 will have answered them in private.

So while GPT4 was trained on all of the questions asked before 2021 what will GPT6 train on? This raises a more profound question. If this pattern replicates elsewhere & the direction of our collective knowledge alters from outward to humanity to inward into the machine then we are dependent on it in a way that supercedes all of our prior machine-dependencies. Whether or not it “wants” to take over, the change in the nature of where information goes will mean that it takes over by default.

Like a fast-growing Covid variant, AI will become the dominant source of knowledge simply by virtue of growth. If we take the example of StackOverflow, that pool of human knowledge that used to belong to us – may be reduced down to a mere weighting inside the transformer. Or, perhaps even more alarmingly, if we trust that the current GPT doesn’t learn from its inputs, it may be lost altogether. Because if it doesn’t remember what we talk about & we don’t share it then where does the knowledge even go?

We already have an irreversible dependency on machines to store our knowledge. But at least we control it. We can extract it, duplicate it, go & store it in a vault in the Arctic (as Github has done). So what happens next? I don’t know, I only have questions. None of which you’ll find on StackOverflow.

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I am putting this up because whether it’s true or false, many believe it and thus it is a sign of our times

Marina Abramovic- Whenever she is at these Hollywood parties. Just know there are new initiates in attendance. These parties are basically for blackmail. You are brought to a room with drugs, alcohol, sex toys, etc. People with black robes & mask enter surrounding the bed.

Continue reading “I am putting this up because whether it’s true or false, many believe it and thus it is a sign of our times”

The Universe is a hologram: Stephen Hawking’s final theory, explained by his closest collaborator

Hawking’s final theory of the Big Bang provides a bold and surprising answer. It envisages the Universe as a holographic projection.

Stephen liked to visualise this idea in a disk-like image of the kind shown above. The outer circle depicts a timeless hologram consisting of countless entangled qubits.

The disk shows the evolution of an expanding Universe that projects down from this. The origin of the Universe lies at the centre of the disk and it expands outward in the radial direction.

It is as if there is a code operating on the entangled qubits that brings about the Universe and this is what we perceive as the flow of time.

Crucially, by taking a fuzzier view of the hologram, one ventures farther back in time, toward the interior of the disk. It is like zooming out. Eventually, however, one runs out of bits. This is the origin of time, according to our theory.

There can be nothing before the Big Bang, because the past that holographically emerges doesn’t extend further back.

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