I am not so sure Trump is complicit. Ofc, he knew what was coming. What he says and what he does are not the same. A different analysis from Macgregor’s is Trump has distanced himself from Netanyahu and is not going play along with him. I would keep both analyses and more in mind as events, which are beyond our control and knowledge, continue to unfold. Don’t place too much stock in who makes the right guesses in matters like this. The future is not a roulette wheel to be bet upon. The present is something we analyze and assess. There are many unknowns in an event of this magnitude. ABN
According to most information flowing from the region, a second wave attack from Israel us underway (or just completed). The first wave targeting was the Iranian military leadership and nuclear scientists, the second wave hitting the nuclear installations.
We could tell from the initial targeting, the IDF were not targeting hardened installations, they were targeting people who run them where they live in the middle of the night. This appears to be confirmed by ground reporting of residences being the target with highly strategic Mossad agents on the ground doing major intelligence activity to identify the targets. It appears Israel was very successful (but still really early).
That approach also establishes the baseline for internal Iranian political opposition to push for regime change.
The second wave of Israeli targeting then goes directly at the nuclear installations. This approach also makes sense. First round takes out the brain power, second round takes out their hardened facilities (much more difficult to eliminate).
As the operation proceeds, we now turn focus to the U.S. interests, and this is where we use hindsight to last Sunday’s Camp David meeting.
Secretary of State / National Security Advisor Marco Rubio emphasizes Israel is acting “unilaterally,” without USA support. President Trump proactively and strategically emphasizes his preferred approach of “diplomacy.”
Some will doubt, but I would draw your attention to Trump’s relay of the call with Vladimir Putin last week. Obviously, President Trump understood Israel was on the cusp of taking some ‘unilateral’ action, albeit with a likelihood of a head’s-up to USA of approximate timing (Sunday Camp David as a proactive ‘get us prepped’ agenda).
The scenario begins to become self-evident when you consider that President Trump redirected 20,000 patriot defense missiles from Ukraine to Israel, much to the chagrin and anger of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as expressed June 9th. Which also takes us into the conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Under this scenario, Camp David on Sunday would likely be a coordination meeting between President Trump, Secretary/NSA Marco Rubio and top military officials where the topic was getting our interests prepared and shifted as the administration knew this week something was going to happen with Iran. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday the U.S. moves personnel and non-essentials into a more secure and stable environment. Friday, Boom.
Back to Putin.
[This is a first-rate analysis, well-worth reading. Posted in full with Sundance’s permission. ABN]
If Israel were to attack Iran on/around the same timeline the leftists have their ‘day of rage’ scheduled on June 14 (Sat), it would be the worst possible timing. Of course, that outcome might also make it more likely.
President Trump confirmed tonight personnel are being “moved out” of parts of the Middle East as tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, while diplomatic talks between the USA and Iran seem to have stalled.
“Well, they are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place, and we’ll see what happens. But they are — we’ve given notice to move out. We’ll see what happens,” Trump said while walking the red carpet at the Kennedy Center. The State Department recently ordered the departure of all nonessential staff from the Baghdad embassy, apparently due to increased security risks.
Additionally, the defense department “has authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations” across the region, U.S. Central Command said in a statement. The command “is monitoring the developing tension in the Middle East.”
It certainly seems like some form of Israeli military action is more likely.
There are always those weird moments right before some kind of military activity, when the entire DC Bubble seems to have tunnel vision, uniparty alignment and deaf ears to the public. Are we at one of those moments?
Get the ball rolling and be proud for 1,000 years. If the Irish pull this off, I’m gonna love it. This is a moral battle and it requires men who feel it as well as think it. ABN
Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Brodsky has confirmed that his country has transferred MIM-104 Patriot air defence systems to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. “The Patriot systems that we once received from the U.S. are now in Ukraine. These are Israeli systems that were in service in the early 1990s. We agreed to transfer them to Ukraine,” the ambassador informed the Ukrainian media outlet Insider.
Speaking on June 8, he notably refrained from specifying the timing of the transfer, and thus did not provide confirmation as to whether reports by Western sources in January 2025 of such transfers were accurate, or whether the systems were delivered more recently. Brodsky further refrained from elaborating on the number of systems which have been delivered, meaning it will likely remain uncertain whether Israel agreed to supply its entire arsenal, or has maintained some units in storage. It has been reported that radars and other parts of the Israeli systems will first be refurbished in the United States before delivery to Ukraine.
Following the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ successful attacks on major strategic bomber facilities across Russia on June 1 under Operation Spider’s Web, questions regarding the extent of the damage to the Russian Aerospace Forces’ fleet have widely been raised, with the growing availability of satellite and drone footage providing some indications. The attack saw sizeable fleets of short range single use rotary wing drones launched from trucks deep within Russian territory, and engage targets as deep as 4000 kilometres away from Ukrainian borders. The Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, which is reported to have played the primary role in organising and carrying out the attack, reported regarding the means by which the attack was launched: “During the operation, modern UAV control technology was used, which combines autonomous artificial intelligence algorithms and manual operator intervention. In particular, some UAVs, due to signal loss, switched to performing the mission using artificial intelligence along a pre-planned route. After approaching and contacting a specifically designated target, the warhead was automatically triggered.”
Destroyed Tu-22M3 Bomber at Belaya Airbase and Multiple Intact Bombers
Ukrainian government sources were quick to claim the attack neutralised 41 Russian aircraft, the vast majority of them strategic bombers and A-50 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) systems. With sources from the country having frequently made highly dubious or outright false claims regarding Ukrainian military successes since the outbreak of full scale hostilities in February 2022, however, it was long expected that the actual losses, although highly detrimental to the Russian fleet’s capabilities, would be much more conservative. The estimate given by Andriy Kovalenko, an official on Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, that “at least 13 Russian aircraft were destroyed,” was considered far more credible.
Looking to satellite footage, the most impressive of all the SBU’s attacks was that launched against Belaya Airbase in Russia’s Irkutsk region near the Mongolian border, which permanently hosts Tu-22M3 medium range bombers. Satellite imagery has confirmed the destruction of four of the aircraft. In addition, three Tu-95MS intercontinental range strategic bombers which were temporarily stationed at the facility were also destroyed. Drone footage confirmed that the Tu-95 bombers were already loaded with Kh-101 cruise missiles when targeted, likely in preparation for further sorties against Ukrainian targets. The impact of the drones appears to have detonated the missiles, ensuing the complete destruction of the aircraft. The strike on Belaya Airbase was also confirmed by satellite footage to have destroyed at least two Tu-22M3 bombers.
I just finished speaking, by telephone, with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia. The call lasted approximately one hour and 15 minutes. We discussed the attack on Russia’s docked airplanes, by Ukraine, and also various other attacks that have been taking place by both sides. It was a good conversation, but not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace. President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields. We also discussed Iran, and the fact that time is running out on Iran’s decision pertaining to nuclear weapons, which must be made quickly! I stated to President Putin that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and, on this, I believe that we were in agreement. President Putin suggested that he will participate in the discussions with Iran and that he could, perhaps, be helpful in getting this brought to a rapid conclusion. It is my opinion that Iran has been slowwalking their decision on this very important matter, and we will need a definitive answer in a very short period of time!
Tragic that Zelensky can disrupt peace talks and Putin feels politically forced to take revenge for the drone attacks. Behavior at the top can be childlike game theory, raw KOBK. ABN
On a visit to Gotland late last month, Sweden’s Chief of Defence Staff and Vice Supreme Commander Carl-Johan Edström said his vision for Gotland as a future NATO hub and first line of defence against Russian aggression.
He also warned that the transatlantic security alliance ‘cannot take its eyes off Russia for the next 15 years’ and said that Gotland must be ready to ‘take a hit’ from Moscow’s forces and keep fighting.
The importance of Gotland’s position is hard to overstate.
It sits just 120 miles from the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – all NATO members – and only 230 miles from Russia’s heavily militarised Kaliningrad exclave.
With Sweden now part of the transatlantic security alliance, Gotland offers allied nations an ideal base from which to surveil and deter Russian air and naval threats over the Baltic Sea, and – in wartime – provide air cover for NATO troops engaged in Europe while striking Russian-held positions.
Germany has updated its strict wartime measures for the first time since the Cold War as the country’s leaders prepare for the possibility of conflict by the end of the decade.
The Federal Government has presented shocking new changes that could see Germany return to compulsory conscription, the evacuation of citizens and food rationing if war breaks out on the continent.
In the event of war, Germany would also look to protect its civilian population by facilitating makeshift bunkers in the subway, preparing hospitals for a sudden spike in the number of patients and storing emergency food reserves in secret locations.
Wartime measures would also impose outright bans on people quitting their jobs in key sectors, forcing the media to publish updates and order companies to only produce goods for defence purposes.
In the worst case scenario, the government is prepared to ration and stockpile food to ensure civilians receive one hot meal per day while stockpiling water for firefighting purposes.
Putin has remained conspicuously silent on the drone attacks, and so has Trump. This indicates stuff is going on behind the scenes. I doubt Putin will go to war with Europe. He has nothing to gain by doing that. The notion that he wants to resurrect the SU is entirely false, absurd. ABN
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