About the Ukrainian diaspora:
Before the invasion, Ukraine had 45 million people.
4mm people have gone to the West, 2mm have gone to Russia, and 8mm have been internally displaced.
1/10
The best, smartest, hardest working Ukrainians will never come back to their homeland. Most of them fled to the West — and they will find good paying jobs and comfort there. A high percentage of them will stay there forever, at least 40%, likely higher.
2/10
Those who are not so capable will remain in Ukraine. Because of their forced displacement, they will resettle in their ethnic regions. This will force a greater geographic divide between ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians, increasing the likelihood of a political split.
3/10
The Russian areas of east and south Ukraine will be under-populated, thus weak. So there will be no political resistance to this region being absorbed by the Russian Federation.
Continue reading “Gonzalo Lira: How Ukraine will end up after the war; a speculative analysis”

