How to think about Ukraine

  1. there is going to be an outcome
  2. the best outcome would be a neutral Ukraine with historically Russian areas in the east leaving Ukraine, becoming either independent or joining the Russian Federation
  3. all parties should seek to achieve this end and to end the violence as soon as possible
  4. KOBK game theory rules are fully in play; Putin initiated the kinetic conflict because he saw no other good option; even if we disagree, his position is rational
  5. the longer we wait, the more he will demand because: a) he saw his initiation of kinetic conflict as a forced KOBK move and b) having done that, he is all but forced to continue
  6. USA/EU/NATO are not forced by KOBK rules or any others to retaliate with violence since they have much less to gain than Putin has to lose
  7. USA/EU/NATO/Zelensky may not want Putin to “win”, yet the sooner they allow this to happen the sooner the violence will stop and a workable long-term outcome can be realized. they can win morally, humanely, and reasonably in this way
  8. to encourage more war and violence against Putin and Russia only escalates the fighting and delays achieving a good outcome
  9. the situation is binary in many practical respects, but if all factors are considered it is much more a chaos of causes
  10. if we consider what populations are where on the ground (Ukrainian, Russian), it is fairly easy to see where the division of Ukraine should be
  11. if we consider the history of Ukraine and Russia, we can see that an amicable outcome is very possible
  12. this outcome will include both states having access to the Black Sea

ABN

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