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Tag: analysis
How Mariupol Will Become a Key Hub of Eurasia Integration
…So the grand North-South design spells out fluent connectivity from the Russian mainland to the Caucasus (Azerbaijan), to West Asia (Iran) all the way to South Asia (India and Pakistan). None of these key players have demonized or sanctioned Russia despite ongoing US pressures to do so.
Strategically, that represents the Russian multipolar concept of Greater Eurasian Partnership in action in terms of trade and connectivity – in parallel and complimentary with BRI [Belt and Road Initiative] because India, eager to install a rupee-ruble mechanism to buy energy, in this case is an absolutely crucial Russia partner, matching China’s reported $400 billion strategic deal with Iran. In practice, the Greater Eurasia Partnership will facilitate smoother connectivity between Russia, Iran, Pakistan and India.
The NATO universe, meanwhile, is congenitally incapable of even recognizing the complexity of the alignment, not to mention analyze its implications. What we have is the interlocking of BRI, INTSC [International North South Transportation Corridor] and the Greater Eurasia Partnership on the ground – all notions that are regarded as anathema in the Washington Beltway.
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Excellent overview of what’s coming in Central Asia and beyond. ABN
Gonzalo Lira and Scott Ritter on the war in Ukraine; link now leads to a recording
This is a first-rate overview of battle tactics and political considerations on both sides. Russia is set for total victory, Ukraine has no cards left to play, NATO will very probably not intervene as costs would far outweigh benefits. ABN
FLASHBACK 2011: “The goal is not to completely subjugate Afghanistan. The goal is to wash money out of the tax bases of the US and EU through Afghanistan and back into the hands of the transnational security elite. The goal is to have an endless war…”
Notice that the endless war in Afghanistan was replaced almost immediately by what may become the endless proxy war in Ukraine, with ample room for mission creep. Compare Julian Assange to Joe Biden and how our society assess and rewards them. Shows how far off we are, how profoundly lost we are. The senile serial crook is president while the brave journalist is dying in prison. ABN
Gonzalo Lira: “Pure speculation—what comes next: As Mariupol is wrapped up, Russian units will be redeployed from there to the cauldron around Kramatorsk. Same with the Kiev troop reduction.”
Pure speculation—what comes next:
As Mariupol is wrapped up, Russian units will be redeployed from there to the cauldron around Kramatorsk. Same with the Kiev troop reduction.
Those 60,000 AFU fighters trapped in that cauldron will either surrender or be annihilated.
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Once that main fighting force has been neutralized, the rest of that Ukraine army will likely collapse. By “collapse“, I mean they will simply give up.
The first collapse will be around Kharkov, the closest major concentration of AFU forces to the Kramatorsk encirclement.
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Once Kharkov falls, Odessa will be next. The Russians will take it over without firing a shot.
As in Kherson and Energodar, the Russian occupiers of Kharkov and Odessa will declare a utility debt jubilee, and insist everyone start using Russian rubles as the local currency.
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Dnepropetrovsk will likely declare itself an open city.
From Southwest Belarus, Belarusian and Russian troops will stream south in a guillotine, cutting off the western entrance to Ukraine, to stop weapons flows into the country. There will be no resistance or fighting.
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The peace treaty that will partition Ukraine and create Novorossiya (the newest member of the Russian Federation) will be signed in Kiev, and the signatories will be Ukraine Pres. Victor Medvedchuk and Vladimir Putin, both of whom will sign in person before December 31, 2022.
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Originally tweeted by Gonzalo Lira (@realGonzaloLira) on March 30, 2022.
BlackRock CEO, Larry Fink: “I believe we are going to see an acceleration of near-shoring and on-shoring… That still means globalization but a different framework”
…“I believe we are going to see an acceleration of near-shoring and on-shoring. So that still means globalisation but a different framework,” said Fink.
“I do believe it’s going to have a demonstrable impact on the emerging world as we move more manufacturing closer to demand. And so I do believe all of this is going to change the world order in a very large way,” said the American.
He urged governments to think “much more longer term”, predicting businesses will move “from one region to another, one country to another”.
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Gonzalo Lira on Victoria Nuland
Gonzalo Lira: How Ukraine will end up after the war; a speculative analysis
About the Ukrainian diaspora:
Before the invasion, Ukraine had 45 million people.
4mm people have gone to the West, 2mm have gone to Russia, and 8mm have been internally displaced.
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The best, smartest, hardest working Ukrainians will never come back to their homeland. Most of them fled to the West — and they will find good paying jobs and comfort there. A high percentage of them will stay there forever, at least 40%, likely higher.
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Those who are not so capable will remain in Ukraine. Because of their forced displacement, they will resettle in their ethnic regions. This will force a greater geographic divide between ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians, increasing the likelihood of a political split.
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The Russian areas of east and south Ukraine will be under-populated, thus weak. So there will be no political resistance to this region being absorbed by the Russian Federation.
Continue reading “Gonzalo Lira: How Ukraine will end up after the war; a speculative analysis”Reminder, Zelenskyy Statements Coordinate with State Dept Message Needs
It is always worth a brief reminder when looking at statements from foreign politicians under the influence of the U.S. government via the state department, that all messaging – even messaging that seems provocative, is coordinated by the alignment of interests. The process of promoting a mutually beneficial reality is especially important when reviewing any current statements from Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
There is no sunlight between the agenda of Zelenskyy and the agenda of the U.S. State department. There are times when the U.S. government will ask their ideological policy partner, Zelenskyy, to be intentionally antagonistic toward the U.S. because the U.S. government is coordinating an internal pressure campaign. It is all part of the carefully crafted propaganda campaign for domestic consumption.
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Alexander Mercouris: Russian General Staff Claims Ukraine Army in Donbass Cut off and Being Destroyed
Not-so-secret weaponry
Two major things have to go nuclear: 1) the fact that Biden/Harris are completely illegitimate, no question about it, the election was stolen and their handlers are both evil and incompetent, no question about that either; and 2) Donald Trump is the ONLY politician who has a ghost of a chance of bringing sanity back to USA, the West, and the world. For some reason Trump has been tarred with a deep mind-control brush.
For some reason he is not cool, even to intellectuals who fully recognize that national sovereignty, nationalism, and some semblance of a world with representative governments is the only way to move toward a livable future. I am going to name just three respectable intellectuals who frequently further those ideas while ignoring Trump, but there are many more. Van Wolferen, CA Fitts, and Alex Mercouris all talk about the importance of national sovereignty and lament a looming global dystopia ruled by WEF and company. But they never say the most practical way as of today to avoid that future is through Donald Trump, either in a second presidency or as a kingmaker for a refurbished Republican party. I personally believe the deep semiotics of the “cooties” Trump has for these people is he is an extreme representation of whiteness, maleness, and worldly success. Biden is about to blow up the fucking world and our best people still can’t or won’t understand Trump or speak rationally about his importance. Politics is the art of the possible and Trump is by far the best realistic possibility we have. ABN
A proper informed consent leads to 99.8% of army soldiers refusing to get vaccinated
Army doctor Dr. Pete Chambers gave an informed consent briefing to 3,000 soldiers. After that briefing, just 6 soldiers wanted to be vaccinated. Chambers was subsequently relieved of his duties.
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Make Nazism Great Again: The supreme target is regime change in Russia, Ukraine is just a pawn in the game – or worse, mere cannon fodder.
All eyes are on Mariupol. As of Wednesday night, over 70% of residential areas were under control of Donetsk and Russian forces, while Russian Marines, Donetsk’s 107th batallion and Chechen Spetsnaz, led by the charismatic Adam Delimkhanov, had entered the Azov-Stal plant – the HQ of the neo-Nazi Azov batallion.
Azov was sent a last ultimatum: surrender until midnight – or else, as in a take no prisoners highway to hell.
That implies a major game-changer in the Ukrainian battlefield; Mariupol is finally about to be thoroughly denazified – as the Azov contingent long entrenched in the city and using civilians as human shields were their most hardened fighting force.
Meanwhile, echoes from the Empire of Lies all but gave the whole game away. There’s no intention whatsoever in Washington to facilitate a peace plan in Ukraine – and that explains Comedian Zelensky’s non-stop stalling tactics. The supreme target is regime change in Russia, and for that Totalen Krieg against Russia and all things Russian is warranted. Ukraine is just a pawn in the game – or worse, mere cannon fodder.
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French Ministry of Defense map with bullet points translated (03/24/22)
Notable points:
• the pressure on the urban centers of the East
and the South remains in particular at
Mariupol where the Russians produce their
effort;
• the general tactical situation remains fixed but the Ukrainian forces lead
some localized counter-attacks.
On the northern front:
Kyiv:
• the encirclement maneuver is not
finished and is constrained by the flood of
the Irpin River;
The Retreat of the Oligarchs: The Great Russian Restoration
…The key takeaway here is that the almost two decade-long détente within Russia between the pro-West and pro-Russia factions has now been totally shattered. President Putin has made a play to consolidate more power and move the country in the direction of autarchy and autocracy by appealing to the support of the people. His recent speech at a stadium in Moscow was something you don’t see often from him — the last time we saw something comparable was when he appeared on stage after his electoral victory in 2018 and gave an emotional thank you to the Russian people for re-electing him again. But for the most part, Putin has not often utilized mass rallies as a political instrument, preferring to stream conferences with ministers and deliver pre-prepared video speeches. In that sense, he is quite unlike Trump, who built his entire movement on his high-energy political rallies where he would rail on and diss his personal and political opponents for hours at a time in front of a rapturous crowd. His populist appeal to the Russian people was answered in force: the stadium was overflowing and there were massive crowds outside it as well.
With this move, Putin has proven that he has the Russian people behind him.
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American Buddhist Net 