How to think about Ukraine, Russia, China, and USA by using “game theory”; no math required

The game theory presented in this essay is very simple and basic. It explains or describes a great deal of human behavior because there is nothing simpler or more basic.

Simply stated, “game theory is the study of (mathematical models of) strategic interactions among rational agents.”

The mathematical model of this game theory uses math that is so simple it can be thought of as not using math at all. The math is: Kill-Or-Be-Killed (KOBK). It explains very accurately what is happening in the world today.

Example: Putin knows he has been pushed into a corner by the West/USA. If the West/USA through NATO succeeds in fully occupying and controlling Ukraine, Putin knows and has stated correctly that he faces “an existential threat.” If he surrenders control to an aggressive enemy in Ukraine—NATO— Putin knows he will be well on the way to losing control of all of Russia.

Example: Xi Jinping is faced with a different set of circumstance but a similar conclusion: If he does not take over Taiwan, he will lose power at home and China will lose power globally. Ergo: he almost certainly will take over Taiwan. For Xi, a big part of his KOBK reasoning is “now or never.” If he does not act now, it may forever after be too late to act at all. Delaying now may result in China losing any chance to be a major player in KOBK world politics.

Both man are faced with raw Kill-Or-Be-Killed (KOBK) conditions. Both know that to lose the battle is to lose the war. Both understand they must act forcefully. Neither (probably) has the power to “kill” the West/USA but both face the danger of being “killed” by the West/USA. Kill here means “conquered and rendered impotent.” This can entail military defeat or more commonly political and economic defeat. The word probably in parenthesis just above is a qualifier for China since we do not know how deeply they may have infiltrated the West/USA or be on the side of others who have.

Example: The West/USA has been infiltrated by foreign actors or Western actors who are hostile to the West/USA or care nothing about it. By using KOBK reasoning we can see this is true based on the strong probability that the West/USA released covid, and without question responded to it in a way that greatly has harmed the people of the West/USA.

Example: We can understand the NSA database, an early form of panopticon spying, and the current push to establish digital IDs that hold all of our information in one place and can be easily checked by governments, the police, banks, and other entities. This system will lead to total control of any population under it. The West/USA, by KOBK reasoning, not only wants to do this but must do this. If they do not, they will face KOBK enemies that have done it, as well as parts of their own populations with the capacity to rise up against them, as Canadian truckers just illustrated.

A key point to understand about KOBK game theory is moves are often forced. Putin is forced to escalate in Ukraine, while the West/USA is for the time being not. The West/USA can delay its KOBK onslaught on Russia. Ultimately, the West/USA wants Russia to be a larger version of Ukraine, or France, Italy, or Germany—a willing player-puppet in a power array that requires total dominance and permits no enemies with even a small chance of threatening them.

Speculation: KOBK reasoning can help us understand how deeply China has infiltrated the West/USA and/or how much such infiltration has been welcomed by whoever else infiltrated the West/USA. KOBK reasoning can also help us understand, the position of Japan vis-a-vis China; and what position Japan will be in if the West/USA allows China to take over Taiwan or fails to protect it. Are Japan, Korea, Vietnam and other nearby nations to China destined to be “Ukraines” within China’s sphere of influence? KOBK reasoning would say, yes without question.

A major very dangerous aspect of KOBK is it can escalate very quickly. NATO pushes Putin to his limit; Putin invades Ukraine; NATO pushes harder; Putin adds thermobaric weapons; if NATO keeps pushing and Putin uses those weapons all hell may break loose. How can Putin avoid using them? Does NATO/the West/USA want Putin to use them? If the West/USA is controlled by non-Western infiltrators KOBK rules argue that may be exactly what they want.

For information on how a large nation or civilization such as the West/USA can be infiltrated and fully taken over in just two or three generations, see: Military thought experiment Part 1. KOBK reasoning alone almost guarantees the West/USA has been infiltrated and fully taken over already. ABN

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