Five possible military scenarios that could be provoked by Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan

Scenario 1: The minimalist approach. The PLA occupies Jinmen or Matsu islands, as well as Taiwan’s islands in the South China Sea, and maybe even the Penghu Islands. They also declare part or all of the Taiwan Strait a “no go” zone to foreign military shipping. This would probably be fairly easy for the PLA, and Taiwan would probably not want to overcommit to naval action against the huge PLA Navy (PLAN) if it didn’t directly approach the main island.

Scenario 2: Hybrid warfare. Some sort of partial naval and aerial blockade of Taiwan intended to interfere with the economy, combined with stepped-up harassment, such as direct flyovers of Taiwan’s territory by PLA Air Force (PLAAF) jets, or incursions into Taiwan’s maritime space by China’s naval militia, protected by PLAN warships. This might also be accompanied by cyberattacks designed to shut down the internet and other infrastructure for days at a time. Taiwan would have no choice to assert a stiff defensive posture, resulting in real engagements between Taiwanese and Chinese forces, posing a serious risk of escalation.

Scenario 3: A serious attack but no invasion. This would involve air and sea warfare only, no boots on the ground. A full aerial and naval blockade, a protracted set of naval and aerial battles designed to degrade Taiwan’s military, combined with ballistic missile attacks on military targets. Aggressive cyberattacks turning off the internet and shutting down critical infrastructure for days or weeks. Once air and naval superiority were established, China could pick off targets at will, ratcheting up the threat until the government breaks.

Scenario 4: The Full Monty – a proper invasion. Total air and sea blockade, massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets, massive cyberattacks to paralyze virtually all military, governmental, and civilian communication and shut down critical infrastructure. Aggressive naval and aerial engagements to degrade Taiwan’s forces and achieve battlespace superiority, followed by sustained aerial assaults by fighters and bombers on military targets. A decapitation strike at Taipei by special forces units to try to seize key leadership personnel. Well-coordinated insider treason and sabotage actions by gangsters, planted CCP agents, and other groups sympathetic to China – the so-called “5th column”. An amphibious assault with close air support from fighters, helicopters, and battle drones at one or more locations in Taiwan, and very possibly a move to seize a major port, such as Keelung, Taipei Port, Taichung, or Kaohsiung. Then hundreds of thousands of troops would start rolling in until the island was occupied. That would be the plan, anyway. PLA success in such an endeavor is very unclear. But they could do a hell of a lot of damage trying. And yes, they might actually succeed, at least partially, such as in seizing and holding the region around Taipei.

Scenario 5: Worst Case (short of nuclear) scenario. Full air and sea blockade, massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets, massive cyberattack, aggressive naval and aerial attacks to degrade Taiwan’s forces and achieve battlefield superiority, followed by aerial assaults by fighters and bomber on military targets and area bombing of civilian targets. There are massive casualties, and Taiwan is crushed by brute force, surrenders, and then the occupiers enter the country and take it over.

link to original

Be sure to read the linked article for a discussion of how these military responses may or may not fit developing conditions. Scenario 0 is there may be no military response. Taiwan could tell Pelosi not to come or prevent her from coming, but so far this has not happened, so a major onus is very much on Taiwan right now. That said, the US role is huge. The only “advantage” the US can gain from this is a similar proxy war/bleeding of China as Ukraine was supposed to effect against Russia. The other big factor is the US may possess super-weapons that ensure victory if WW3 breaks out. This would entail a super antimissile system as well as super-nukes, probably space-based. Without question Biden is not in charge. Who are his handlers and what are their goals? Are their goals in any way good for America? The world? Why do Biden’s overlords use such drab, dismal people as their public face? Consider how weak and stupid most of them seem to be, including Pelosi, Harris, Biden, Blinken, Sullivan, Buttigieg, and many more. None of them appears to have the intelligence or ability to lead USA in placid times, let alone these times. ABN

The six-blade ‘ninja missile’ used to mince terrorists: CIA deployed two R9X Hellfires to shred Al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri – a month after it was used to wipe out ISIS thug in Syria

On Saturday, al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri became the latest victim of the US military’s highly sophisticated precision missile, the R9X Hellfire

The missile uses extended blades rather than explosives to kill targets with extreme accuracy

The weapon was developed by the Obama administration as concerns grew over the amount of civilian casualties occurring due to earlier drone strikes

Since it was first deployed, officials in the government have been coy about discussing its use 

The missile’s blades can cut through buildings, and car roofs and has been referred to as a ‘speedy anvil’ and a ‘Ginsu,’ a reference to the popular steak knife

link

China’s Peoples Liberation Army posted a new video on WeChat ahead of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan

direct link

I personally greatly favor Taiwan independence, but do not believe it is our fight. Pelosi’s trip, if she goes, will only raise tensions with China. Taiwan would do better to be patient and lay low. Their only chance for independence is regime change in Beijing bringing a new outlook. For Chinese civilization as a whole, an independent Taiwan would be a good thing. Why is USA provoking this? The only thing that makes sense is we have a super-weapon and are planning to use it. ABN

Dr Mike Yeadon: “They [FDA] just voted on it last week. There’s no requirement for any safety and efficacy studies in humans from these variant vaccines, which means a drug company’s computer can form any code they damn well like, press alt + print, manufacture a billion doses of something that FDA is not going to check, and then stick it in a billion arms”

direct link

Full video: Dr. Mike Yeadon: ‘It [the Jab] Could Not Have Worked, and They Knew It’

San Francisco, New York State Declare Monkeypox A Public Health Emergency

The city of San Francisco and the state of New York declared public health emergencies on Thursday amid the growing outbreak of monkeypox.

San Francisco Mayor London Breed said that the risk of monkeypox to the general population remained low but that declaring a public health emergency would allow the city to mobilize resources and accelerate emergency plans to respond to rising case numbers. Monkeypox infections in the city have nearly doubled over the past week, she noted.

link

It would be right to suspect these “emergency declarations” of being a covid-style grab for more power and money, especially in the case of NY State which has only 1,250 cases in the whole state. It would also be right to suspect monkeypox is yet another engineered virus released possibly deliberately from a biolab doing weapons research. Right now MP is largely a sexually transmitted disease among gay men, so be careful if that describes you. Once governmental bodies declare emergencies, they tend to never let go. Covid vaccines are still authorized for “emergency use only” even though they do not work, are themselves harmful, and there exist many therapies that effectively treat covid, a fact that renders the “emergency use” of vaccines illegitimate and has done so since the onset of the Emergency Use Authorization declared for them. Just as US provocations in Taiwan mirror US/NATO provocations in Ukraine, so monkeypox seems to be mirroring covid-19 in origin and use as a power-grab designed to frighten the population into submission. ABN

‘You can take someone’s DNA and design a weapon that can kill them’: House intelligence committee member warns people not to share health data with sites like 23andMe because it can be used to program new bio-weapons to target them

US Rep Jason Crow warned that bio-weapons are being made that use a target’s DNA to only kill that person during the Aspen Security Forum on Friday 

The congressman said the development of the weapons is worrisome given the popularity of DNA testing services like 23andMe

23andMe has stated that it does not sell off customer’s private information, but the company is one of many that has provided information to police

In 2019, it was found that several Russian and Chinese labs were processing DNA tests for Americans through Medicare and Medicaid

Officials warned the bio-weapons could also target animals and disrupt food supplies around the globe  

link

Race-based or ethnic-based weapons are also possible and are probably the larger concern, though not mentioned in this story. This is a game-theory area where KOBK thinking is required. KOBK is a kind of zero-sum war strategy. At its deepest level—and KOBK is very simple—it means if a nation suspects another nation of wanting to “kill” (utterly vanquish) it, it must kill it first. It is an inescapable line of reasoning that top world powers must engage in and a major reason our times today are so dangerous. We are still in the deadly shadow of the covid virus, which was definitely made in a lab and probably released deliberately, a classic bioweapon complete with plausible deniability. It is arguable covid vaccines are a second wave of attack, as is banning effective treatments. NATO aggression in Ukraine followed by the Russian invasion has brought us closer to nuclear war than ever before. A war initiated by China against Taiwan or provoked by NATO will be as bad or worse than Ukraine. ABN

FBI investigation determined Chinese-made Huawei equipment could disrupt US nuclear arsenal communications

Washington (CNN)On paper, it looked like a fantastic deal. In 2017, the Chinese government was offering to spend $100 million to build an ornate Chinese garden at the National Arboretum in Washington DC. Complete with temples, pavilions and a 70-foot white pagoda, the project thrilled local officials, who hoped it would attract thousands of tourists every year.      

But when US counterintelligence officials began digging into the details, they found numerous red flags. The pagoda, they noted, would have been strategically placed on one of the highest points in Washington DC, just two miles from the US Capitol, a perfect spot for signals intelligence collection, multiple sources familiar with the episode told CNN.  

link

Evidence TWA Flight 800 was shot down due to negligence

On July 17, 1996, #TWA800 was blown out of the sky shortly after taking off from John F. Kennedy Airport in New York.

Two hundred thirty people died in the crash. Investigators and journalists have covered the event, and the official cover story is that an electrical failure in the 747 caused the fuel tanks to explode. #TWA800

Continue reading “Evidence TWA Flight 800 was shot down due to negligence”

Russia is one of the few countries in the world & the only major power to still field Railway Troops

We often discuss the all important supply lines, & in the case of #Russia, the railways. RU is one of the few countries in the world & the only major power to still field Railway Troops (In NATO, only Italy has a small regiment w 2 railway engineer companies). Given Russia’s vast

geography, heavy use of artillery, especially rocket artillery (very supply intensive), limited number of military trucks, and relatively sparse road system the army depends on the railways. From their Imperial Tsarist beginnings, through the Soviet era & up until today, the

Railway Troops have undergone many changes & been part of various ministries. Their modern iteration begins in 1995 when they are established as an independent Federal Service & strengthened. By 1999 they include 4 railway corps, with 28 railway brigades (+ other elements).

Continue reading “Russia is one of the few countries in the world & the only major power to still field Railway Troops”

Military thought experiment Part 1

The game: Gain control of a large society by using a small number of military operatives.

Let’s use clandestine military operatives numbering .0001 of the targeted society.

100 million times .0001 = 10,000.

So 10,000 clandestine military operatives will play this game to win against a society with a population of 100 million.

The clandestine force can achieve its goal by:

  • infiltrating and blending into the large society
  • distributing 10,000 clandestine operatives widely across the society
  • this may take several generations
  • once in place, operatives identify natural leaders inside the host society
  • then they attack those natural leaders in such a way that they become poor leaders
  • this is better than killing them because they are rendered ineffective while their weaknesses demoralize others in the community
  • this method of attack is unlikely to be detected by law enforcement
  • they must be attacked in ways that are not easily discoverable, including socially, financially, reputationally, through bad grades, misdirection, poison, maiming, psychosurgery, and so on
  • it is best to begin attacking natural leaders while they are young and continue as long as effective, even for many decades
  • this tactic is greatly facilitated by hostile operatives being born and raised in the large society
  • at the same time operatives work to help those who favor their cause(s) or position(s)
  • this might include harming the competitors of those people being favored
  • within 20-30 years, social disorganization will be noticeable due to the large number of disabled natural leaders
  • within 50 years social disorganization will be obvious
  • during the same time-frame, people favored by the hostile operatives will gain positions of power
  • soon, the larger society will succumb to the hostile takeover and a small number of military operatives will have won against a much larger society

The cost is minimal and the methods are almost undetectable. Once achieved, the goal can be proclaimed a victory by those who gained it.

While the goal is being pursued, operatives will discover ways to extract resources from the host society, thus paying their own way without funding from abroad.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

Part 6

Part 7


first posted April 6, 2017